Games of Power

At the same time as we are watching the Games of the XXXIII Olympiad in Paris, we are watching the far more worrisome and dangerous game of power playing out in the Middle-East. The teams are Israel and the United States on one side, Iran and its terrorist proxies Hamas, Hizbollah and the Houthis on the other.   

Israel has just scored two huge points in these power games, the assassinations of Hamas political chief Ismael Haniya in Iran, and Hizbollah's most senior military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut. This follows Israel's assassination of Hamas's military chief Mohammed Deif in Gaza, as well as a massive attack 1500 kilometers away on Hodeidah Port in Yemen in response to a fatal Houthi drone attack in Tel-Aviv. All of these operations were meant as much to send a message - namely to showcase Israel's superior intelligence and military capabilities - as to eliminate the leadership of the enemy. These games of power being played need to be seen within the wider framing of why October 7th happened in the first place, and that is the loss of Israeli military regional deterence and the perception of weakness by Iran and its terrorist partners. Power always comes down to a test of will and capacity to inflict damage. In this context, what Israel has done over the last few weeks has been both devastating and humiliating to Iran. In particular the assassination of Haniyah, in Teheran, where he was a guest of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini whom he had been with just hours before. The message Israel delivered to Khameini was heard loud and clear, we can get anyone, anywhere, including you. Khameini took the brazenness of Israel's operation personally, and ordered an attack in response, so one is coming for sure. But the damage reputationally to Iran has been done. No response can restore the impression of weakness. The US has reportedly moved 12 warships into the region, and there is word that diplomatic back-channel communications have gone into high gear through China to warn Iran to moderate its response. Israel's bold move also signals that operations in Gaza are winding down and forces and resources are being re-deployed for war up north. And perhaps the most notable part of all this? Is anyone talking about the Palestinians? No. Now that the college encampments in North America have been dismantled, the truth about these power games is surfacing in the media: It was never about the Palestinians, they were as expendable as pawns on a chessboard. 

Games of power, as opposed to wars for territory and resources (which obviously have a power aspect to them), do not typically erupt into all out war. Their sole objective is international re-alignment ie. to demonstrate the strength or weakness of leadership, military capacity, and international alliances. The current competition in the Middle-East is not much of a contest in this respect. Israel and the United States are in another class, and Iran knows it. A wider war is in no one's interest, but much less so, Iran's. Iran and its proxies has the capacity to devastate Israel militarily but not destroy it. Israel and America have the capacity to send Iran back to the Stone Age and potentially set off a process that could fracture the country and topple an unpopular represssive regime. The Ayatollahs in Teheran understand this. 

All this having been said, can signals get crossed? Yes. Can the ladder of escalation, attack and retaliation, take on its own momentum and be difficult to stop? Yes. Could one side make a move (like the unintended bombing of a soccer field in a Druze town that killed more than a dozen children) that  generates emotions that have a life of their own? Yes. That's why this is such a dangerous game. So far Israel and Iran have been able to measure their responses. But that's not any guarantee it will continue.