Deep Breath

The first time around, I thought the American people had chosen change, and that felt like explanation enough. Trump was the shiny new object, a relative unknown (except as a third rate celebrity), and there was a clear sense that people were willing to take a chance on someone different and entertaining over someone who’d been around a long time and seemed unappealing. But now, nine years later, that can’t be said. This time, the choice was as clear and stark as possible. No hedging, no excuses. Voters knew exactly who and what they were supporting—and they did so with more enthusiasm and in greater numbers than ever. And that’s what makes this election so difficult to swallow.

This time, the American people knowingly and enthusiastically endorsed hatefulness and division over joy and unity. They endorsed anger and grievance over positivity and hope. They endorsed vulgarity and dishonesty over civility and decency. They endorsed blame over personal responsibility. They endorsed the crass pursuit of wealth and power over humility and service. They endorsed selfishness over selflessness. They endorsed fear over optimism. They endorsed authoritarianism over freedom. 

And they rationalized their endorsements in a variety of banal ways. Some said it’s because they thought the price of eggs was too high. Others said it’s because he is better for Israel. The choice reveals very little about the chosen and a lot about the chooser. 

Expect a lot of hand wringing and blame over the next few days and weeks. Some will say the loss was attributable to strategy. Others will say it was the candidate and her performance. A friend of mine explained to me that the Democrats lost because they were too arrogant and didn’t listen. So I asked him, what part of their policy demonstrated they weren’t listening? Was it the tax breaks for the middle class? Was it the help for a down payment on a home? Was it childcare and healthcare assistance? Lowering prescription drug prices? Enhancement of the Affordable Care Act? I said to him, better yet, can you name a single policy that showed Trump was listening? 

I don’t buy any of it. 

I believe Harris ran a great campaign, nearly flawless. One of the best I have seen in my lifetime, second to Obama in 2008. I believe her message was pitch perfect and her policy proposals were well conceived and attractive to exactly the people they were designed and needed to reach; the middle class. I also think her opponent ran one of the worst, most appalling and distasteful campaigns in history. Fumbling and listless and disorganized. Second only to his terrible 2020 campaign. So what was the problem?

Well, today I’m thinking of Allan Lichtman, for whom I have particular sympathy. He, of the famous 13 Keys to the White House, who, after more than 40 years of nearly flawless prediction, finally got it wrong. Maybe, as Lichtman says, campaigns and candidates don’t really matter. Elections are ultimately about the performance of the governing party. And maybe that’s precisely what changed in unprecedented fashion this time. There was a paradigm shift (happening over the last few election cycles) that rendered his infallible system fallible. In effect, Lichtman was wrong by being right. It wasn’t the performance of the governing party that was missed, it was the perception of the performance of the governing party. By almost every metric that supposedly matters to voters, many that are measured by the 13 Keys, the Democrats have performed exceptionally well. While we were told a recession was inevitable after Covid, the Democrats managed a soft economic landing. Inflation is moderating, wages are up, unemployment is down, and the stock market is booming. Biden had a number of remarkable legislative achievements. So why do Americans think the country is going in the wrong direction? Why do they rate Biden so unfavourably? It’s almost as if huge chunks of the electorate are living in an alternate reality.

The one thing I heard over and over again during the campaign was ‘We don’t know enough about Harris’, ‘we don’t know her policies and agenda’. Strange considering that she’s been the Vice-President for four years, and was on television daily for three months during the campaign, including at a nationally televised debate in which she performed very well while her opponent acted like a doddering incoherent fool ranting about immigrants eating pets. She spoke at massive rallies in front of hundreds of thousands of people, and did all manner of media interviews. But I believe them when they say ‘we don’t know enough about her’.

Because in all likelihood, on their media ‘feed’ (the word always reminds me of pigs at a trough) she was nearly absent, while her rival was nauseatingly ubiquitous. And that’s the nature of our information environment. Trump was covered by every media outlet all the time. While Harris was only covered by the center-left half and intentionally either ignored or covered negatively by the others. Anecdotally - and I’m sure someone has done or will do a more scientific survey - Harris garnered a fraction of the media attention that Trump did during the campaign.

I suspect this is why the message never penetrated. Half the country lives in an impenetrable and self-reinforcing hardened information silo. Trump, the spotlight hog that he is, has mastered the recipe for being a magnet to all types of media all the time. Normie politicians like Harris may as well exist in this world as apparitions.

Of course, it still comes down to voters making choices. Making an informed choice always took some effort. Nowadays, the effort is Herculean. Wading into the turbulent seas of lies and disinformation takes extraordinary breath-holding effort and stamina like oyster diving for pearls.