Thursday, November 21, 2024

How The System Breaks

The system is already broken, to some extent. Here's how we know this. 

Trump ran possibly the worst political campaign in American history. His speeches were rambling, incoherent and dull. His 'policy' statements, insofar as any could be deciphered, were fanciful and provided no actionable details. His debate performance was lacklustre, with his most memorable moment being the bizarre claim that legal Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, were eating the community's pets.

And yet he won the election. That's how we know the system is already broken. 

One clear takeaway from this election is that Presidents today are primarily media figures. We relate to them as we would to characters on television—as avatars for our feelings. It matters little what they say; Trump, in particular, is a master of speaking a lot while saying very little. What truly matters is what they represent and how they make us feel.

Let's just admit one thing, Harris made a lot of people feel uncomfortable. This discomfort stemmed from various factors: her identity as a woman, her racial and cultural diversity, her perceived "unfamiliarity," and her campaign's tightly controlled nature. Yet equally alienating for some voters was her positivity, joy, and celebratory tone, which felt inauthentic or out of touch with their own struggles. This isn’t a critique of Harris herself—there was likely little she could have done differently. However, it underscores how many voters gravitated toward Trump, not for his policies or unimpeachable character (pun intended), but because he embodied their feelings: anger, grievance, and victimhood. In contrast, Harris's nurturing and supportive approach did not resonate with them. 

The core of trump's messaging is really very simple. It has three components: How bad things are, how mad you should be about it, and who to blame for it. Every issue—be it the economy, crime, immigration, or global affairs—is framed in hyperbolic, apocalyptic terms. The world teeters on the brink of World War III. Boys are returning home from school as girls. Immigrants aren’t just arriving—they're invaders, murderers, rapists, and, apparently, pet-eaters. While the specifics are absurd, the hyperbole serves a purpose: it’s not about what’s said but how it’s said. It’s about stirring feelings.

Rally signs reading "Trump Will Fix It" encapsulate his appeal. To fix things, though, Trump’s implicit promise is to dismantle and destroy first. There’s a visceral, almost ritualistic thrill in destruction—bonfires have long been communal bonding events for a reason. Populist autocrats exploit this, portraying themselves as avatars of the public’s desire for destruction. Ironically, when this destruction inevitably brings pain and suffering, it only reinforces the belief that the system is broken and needs further dismantling. For instance, if voters believe the economy is failing, actions that worsen it—like imposing sweeping tariffs—become self-fulfilling proof that the economy doesn’t work, fueling even greater anger and victimhood.

Thankfully, breaking the system isn’t easy. It requires deliberate steps: Step one is appointing unqualified incompetent leadership. Step two is to purge upper and mid-level employees committed to agency missions, replacing them with loyalists or leaving positions vacant. Step three is implementing policy designed to undermine the agencies core purpose and functions. This process doesn't happen overnight, but trump’s cabinet selections reflect this strategy: Tulsi Gabbard (DNI), Pete Hegseth (Defense), and the particularly unqualified, alleged drug-using statutory rapist Matt Gaetz for Attorney General. Trump’s weakness was exposed when the Senate chose John Thune over his pick, Rick Scott, as majority leader. The Senate has historically maintained an independent streak—John McCain’s decisive thumbs-down on ACA repeal comes to mind. However, Gaetz’s nomination will test its resolve. The Supreme Court’s decision implying that criminal actions by a President could be shielded if coordinated with the Attorney General heightens the stakes. 

We should know a lot more about how resilient the system is in the next couple of weeks, even before inauguration. 

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PS. Gaetz has withdrawn. That was fast. A positive sign for institutional resilience.

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