It's The Communication, Stupid

I'm generallly avoiding political information overload these days. I'm watching, and online following, a lot less punditry. Restricting my informational intake to only a few of the most middle of the road unbiased sources. It's part of my program for the New Year to reevaluate my overall perspective on things. As you may be able to tell I'm also occupying my free time (and mental space) with more creative endeavours, namely learning GarageBand and re-working on my iPhone the songs I've posted into slicker versions that sound better and have added instrumentation. I discovered that my smartphone has the equivalent of the London Philharmonic in it, and a musical recording studio that makes Abbey Road look like Betamax technology.  

But I still do dip into cable news on occasion, and something occurred to me. This business of settling on inflation as the main reason that Biden was so unpopular and ultimately Harris lost the election - the refrain you hear is the price of eggs is all people really care about - is wrong. It's not completely wrong, but it's only part of the story, and actually not the most important part. The pundits are flummoxed by the fact that the Biden economy is by far the best in the world coming out of the pandemic. Jobs are at near-historic highs, wages are rising, and by most meaningful metrics the economy is healthy and chugging along at a good clip. But people aren't seeing it in the grocery aisles, they say. Is there always a direct correlation between high inflation and the electoral fate of the incumbent? The answer is clearly no. There have been times in recent US history when Presidents were reelected during a period of inflation (it was as high or higher under Nixon and Reagan, for instance). Biden's economy has had the advantage of low unemployment, which should be equally important to how people feel - and that's key here, it's how people feel, not what they are experiencing that matters most.

This means that inflation can only be part of the story to how people feel. The most important factor? It's how effectively the President communicates, and the way he connects with the public. Biden was arguably the worst communicator of any President in recent memory, maybe second only to George Bush the first, who was also an extremely accomplished President on paper, and failed to win reelection (notably, Bush's average inflation during his term was a point lower than Biden's). The communication skills of the President, in our day of communication overload, have become the single most important factor determining his (or her, in Harris's case) political fortunes. How well he can break through the noise, and maintain the attention of, and connection to supporters, is determinative. The way the leader shapes the narrative determines how people feel about their lives. People have experienced economic austerity and discomfort in the past, but they have had reason to feel good about the sacrifices they've endured when the leader has successfully given them a vision of the future to adopt. Biden's (and Harris's) greatest failure was that he did not do that. And whatever you may think of trump - and as you know I think very little - he communicated in a way that connected with people on a visceral level and provided a view for the future. It may have been a dystopic future to many of us, but it was a vision of the future nonetheless. He was so effective in his communication, that people were willing to excuse his obvious incompetence, inadequacies, ignorance and criminality.

My hope is that the Democrats understand this point, and take this as the main lesson from the last election. Incidentally, it's just as applicable to Canadian politics. Justin Trudeau's early election success demonstrated it. He was essentially a neophyte politician with charisma and communication skills. Yes, Canadians are tired of the Liberals under Trudeau, as the polls are showing. But Poilievre has vulnerabilities as a communicator few people are noticing because the focus is on the Liberals in disarray. It may be too late for the Liberals to salvage the next election, but choosing a leader who is a superior communicator must be their priority if they are to avoid dropping into a political abyss.