Monday, March 2, 2026

Intervention as a Moral Imperative

There’s a great deal of debate online about whether there was a moral imperative to remove the “evil” Ayatollah and his regime, even if the American-Israeli attack was clearly illegal under international law.

Legally, the case is weak. The UN Charter is explicit: the use of force is prohibited except in self-defense against an armed attack or when authorized by the UN Security Council. There was no imminent attack underway, nor a credible case of anticipatory self-defense under the narrow standards traditionally accepted in international law. “Regime change,” whether implicit or explicit, directly violates the foundational principle of state sovereignty — the core organizing rule of the post-1945 international system.

However uncomfortable it may be, even Iran retains the sovereign right to develop the means it believes necessary for its own defense. Many states possess advanced military capabilities without triggering preemptive war. The threshold for lawful force is intentionally high because the consequences of miscalculation are catastrophic.

I would argue that this attack represents the most damaging blow to the rules-based international system since Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine. Ironically, it hands Putin rhetorical ammunition. When major powers circumvent international law in the name of security or morality, they weaken their own ability to condemn others for doing the same. This is why Canada's and Australia's support of the attack on Iran becomes problematic.

But what about the moral imperative? What about the argument that the Iranian people — who rose up in protest and were met with lethal force — needed outside help to be “liberated” from a brutal regime?

This is where the dilemma becomes far more serious. It places the bedrock principle of sovereignty in direct conflict with the moral impulse to prevent suffering. The doctrine of Responsibility to Protect (R2P), endorsed in 2005, was designed to address precisely this tension. It holds that when a state is unwilling or unable to prevent genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, or crimes against humanity, the international community has a responsibility to act.

But R2P was never intended to authorize unilateral regime change. It explicitly channels coercive force through collective mechanisms — primarily the UN Security Council. Without broad international consensus, intervention risks becoming indistinguishable from aggression cloaked in humanitarian language.

The real challenge is determining when the line has truly been crossed. “Evil” is not a legal category; it is a moral judgment. If powerful states can unilaterally define when another government is sufficiently immoral to justify war, then the prohibition on force collapses into subjectivity. Every great power believes its cause is righteous. That is precisely why the system was designed to remove unilateral moral conviction as a trigger for war.

We saw the difficulty of this balance during the Balkan wars of the 1990s — in Bosnia and Herzegovina and later in Kosovo. The international response evolved gradually: sanctions, peacekeeping, diplomacy, and eventually military intervention. Even then, especially in Kosovo, the action was described by some as “illegal but legitimate.” That phrase itself reveals the fragility of the order. When legitimacy drifts away from legality, the guardrails weaken.

History also forces us to confront another uncomfortable truth: externally imposed regime change often produces prolonged instability rather than liberation. Power vacuums invite factionalism. Regional actors intervene. Proxy conflicts proliferate. The moral clarity that justified intervention at the outset quickly dissolves into unintended consequences borne by civilians.

None of this diminishes the suffering of the Iranian people. It does not deny the brutality of their government. It simply recognizes that the method of response matters. Sanctions, diplomatic isolation, support for civil society, documentation of human rights abuses, and international legal accountability are slower and less dramatic tools — but they preserve the architecture of restraint that prevents global politics from devolving into open-ended power struggles.

Our instinct is to seek simple moral binaries — good versus evil, liberation versus tyranny. That works in the movies. In geopolitics, the landscape is far more complex. The road to hell is often paved with good intentions, and once force is unleashed it isn't neatly contained.

Putin implausibly framed his invasion of Ukraine as self-defense and protection. Most of us see it as imperial ambition. It becomes difficult to maintain moral clarity if other powerful states adopt similar language to justify actions that sidestep international law. The standard cannot be elastic depending on who is wielding power.

If the rules-based order is to mean anything, it must apply even when it is inconvenient, especially when it is inconvenient. Otherwise, “moral imperative” becomes not a principle, but a pretext.

And once that line is blurred, it is not only one regime or one region that suffers. It is the stability of the entire international system — a system that, however imperfect, has constrained great-power war for nearly eight decades, and is now being shredded, with reprecussions we have yet to fully understand.

Sunday, March 1, 2026

Getting Real

There is a regional hot war throughout the Middle East, ignited by the American-Israeli attack on Iran that killed the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini and some 50 leaders of the Iranian war council. 

No one is shedding tears for the death of Khameini, except some Shia fanatics, and that is likely to be a dangerous problem in the coming weeks and months.

For those elated with the death of Khameini, let’s get real. Khameini was close to 90 years old. A succession plan was in place. His death is largely symbolic, and will be used as a rallying cry. The brutal, repressive infrastructure that has supported the Islamic Republic for the last almost 50 years did not rest on his frail shoulders.

Can we expect ‘the people’ to rise up spontaneously and suddenly to create a democracy in a place that has literally never had democracy in history. Only in trump’s addled delusional mind is that a thing. More likely, the IRGC will clamp down with more force, increased brutality and bloodshed.

The most Israel can hope for is internal factional struggle. Better that the Iranians point their guns at each other than at Israel. 

That’s a more medium term hope. In the meantime, as long as they can, Iran will continue to lob missiles at Israel and maybe even activate proxies and suicide bombers to wreak havoc abroad. A long term campaign of asymmetrical warfare is my biggest fear. 

Why is this happening now? Do the motives even matter? Probably not. But getting real, as I always try to do, I think the most cynical answers are the probably the right ones:

1. A war puts Netanyahu in the best position possible for the September election in Israel. 

2. A war distracts from trump’s Epstein problem. 

3. Trump is using the US military as a mercenary force, bought and paid for by the Sunni gulf states, who have put billions of dollars into his and his family’s pocket. 

4. Visions of greatness and legacy. It’s a gamble both trump and Netanyahu were willing to take for the sake of hubris. As trump said, no other American president would dare try it. Netanyahu has dreamed of defeating Iran his whole career. 

I will add a word about Iran’s response so far. From the point of view of ‘all out war’ it has been underwhelming and demonstrated, if anything, that it was not an imminent threat to Israel or America. That political justification has been proven categorically false or at least overstated. Netanyahu’s and trump’s brand of politics absolutely require an enemy in order to thrive. In trump’s case, turning to Iran served a purpose after ‘China will take over Greenland’ faltered.  

As I always do, I tend to consider big picture consequences, and there is nothing to celebrate. 

This is another indication of the collapse of the international rules-based order. It’s clear the US was negotiating with Iran over their nuclear program in bad faith - proving once again that they don’t believe in negotiation or diplomacy and can’t be trusted. It was a smokescreen. 

America’s choice of force means thousands of people will die. The world is a far less safe place today than it was last week or even last year. The nature of warfare has changed in a way that means asymmetrical violence and violence against soft targets will increase.