Ceasefire?

So there’s a ceasefire? Yes? No? Maybe?

I know why Trump agreed to it. The ‘war’ was unpopular and risked getting out of hand. And oh yeah there’s the Nobel Peace Prize he still has his eye on.

If they did, I know why Iran agreed to it. They are running out of missiles and more importantly launchers. They don't do ‘war’ well. They are much more adept at terrorism and proxy war, and also using their military to repress their own population. I suspect they still have some nuclear weapons development facilities intact and fissile material stashed away. You have to wonder what the emergency meeting between Iranian officials and Putin was all about, but we can imagine.

If they did, I know why Israel agreed to it. They were running out of defence system rockets. And probably did as much as they could do to degrade Iranian capabilities.

And if you think this is over, keep thinking. 

And here’s a question to ponder. If indeed Iran - while severely weakened, and at risk of being truly obliterated by escalating the war with US - took steps to preserve itself diplomatically, does it throw cold water on Netanyahu’s forever claim that the Islamic regime is apocalyptic to the point of suicidal? That was the crux of his argument. If Iran got a nuclear weapon they would certainly use it against Israel even if it meant knowing Israel would respond with their own bomb. Mutually assured destruction was not a deterrent to the crazy mullahs. Seems like they care about survival after all. 

Damage Assessment

There’s not a lot we can be certain of these days—except that Benjamin Netanyahu had a very good weekend. And that Iran will retaliate for the American attack.

I would have said Israelis are probably pleased with what the U.S. did—except they’re too busy sprinting to bomb shelters every few hours.

The one thing we can say with certainty is that the situation is far less certain than it was just a few days ago. Wars, by their nature, are unpredictable and have an escalatory momentum. As the old adage goes: easy to start, hard to stop. That’s why diplomacy is always preferable. It offers something war never can: predictability. As long as opposing sides are engaged in negotiations, the process is structured and the outcomes measurable.

Am I glad that Israel and the U.S. have degraded Iran’s capacity to threaten the region? Of course. It’s like the high you get from your favourite gelato. But let’s not hang up the “Mission Accomplished” banner just yet. For one, there are still hostages held by Hamas in Gaza—easy to forget them when the news cycle moves this fast. And I believe the world is far more dangerous today than it was last week.

As I’ve argued before: until there’s a change in the terrorist regime in Iran, any achievement from an air campaign will be short-lived.

And then there’s trump.

Let’s stop pretending he gave any serious thought to this. He didn’t. He’s not capable of strategic planning. His approach can be summed up in one phrase: “I’ll show them I’m not a TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out—for those who haven’t been following the shorthand). His personal ties to Bibi Netanyahu, Mohammed bin Salman, and the other gift-giving Gulf royals likely played a role. That’s about all you need to know.

So let’s look at the wider implications of trump’s decision:

1. The collapse of U.S. diplomatic credibility.

Secretary of State Rubio said the U.S. had nothing to do with Israel’s attack—a lie. A 6th round of negotiations with Iran was supposedly on the calendar—another lie. After the U.S. strike, Secretary of Defense Hegseth insisted this wasn’t about regime change—yet trump tweeted about wanting Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” then hinted at regime change. The result? Diplomatic credibility in ruins. Whatever legitimacy this administration had—if any—it has squandered in just six months.

2. The nuclear danger has grown.

We don’t know, and likely never will, how damaged Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities truly are without inspectors on the ground. That’s not going to happen anytime soon. The Iranians had over a week’s notice to hide or move fissile material, especially from Fordow. If they now withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and expel IAEA inspectors—as seems likely—there will be no verifiable oversight left. Their path forward is obvious: race for a nuclear deterrent. The diplomacy that restrained that ambition is now dead.

3. International law is in shambles.

All the pearl-clutching over whether these attacks were “legal” is sad to watch. It’s not that legality doesn’t matter—it’s that it’s now a joke. Watching the Iranian representative at the UN Security Council cite the Charter’s sovereignty clauses, you could almost forget Iran is itself a serial violator of those very norms. It was stomach-turning theater. The UN has failed—again—and its prestige has taken another serious blow. Iran should have been expelled from the UN as a state sponsor of terrorism long ago.

4. Are we closer to regime change, or even regime modification, in Iran?

This is the only question that matters. And the answer is: no. In fact, we’re further away than ever. And if the regime survives this, it will emerge more determined to secure a nuclear deterrent—its only insurance policy against future attacks.

So enjoy your gelato while it lasts. Because the sugar rush won’t.

Bill of Goods Blues

CLICK HERE TO HEAR THE SONG

This bill of goods you're sellin,

Baby I keep buyin.

The story that you're tellin, 

Can't stop myself from tryin.

The way that you flirt, 

Take my money, take my shirt.

The house, the air, the dirt,

Take it all until it hurts.

You got the body baby,

That's drivin me crazy. 

The way you make it move, 

Oh yeah the way you make it groove.

This bill of goods you're sellin,

Baby I keep buyin.

The story that you're tellin, 

Can't stop myself from tryin.

You’ve been beatin me down,

Make me feel like a clown.

Like a boat run aground,

A swimmer too ‘fraid to drown. 

Window shoppin at your store,

I keep pacing the floor. 

I’m lookin for more and more,  

But the lock is on your door.

This bill of goods you're sellin,

Baby I keep buyin.

The story that you're tellin, 

Can't stop myself from cryin.

The US at War with Iran

The US has bombed three nuclear sites in Iran. 

I must say, I am both surprised and not surprised. Which is always the way with trump. I thought he might like the drama and world attention on him a bit longer. 

Also surprised that I really thought trump wanted the Nobel Peace Prize. I still do, except I didn’t imagine that in his warped mind he thought he might be able to get it by bombing Iran to the negotiating table. But I guess he’s that delusional.

Another thought: Goodbye any chance for regime change, which was ultimately the only chance for a lasting peace. Even Iranians who hate the regime will rally behind it. From this day forth, Iran will do everything in its power to rush to get a nuclear weapon. They need one to defend against the US.

Another thought: Iran will retaliate. I expect that the retaliation will take the immediate form of firing missiles at US military bases in the region, but also terrorism, since Iran has shown that terrorism is the only thing it is actually competent at. 

I expect trump and the US will rue this day.

Where We Are Headed

Israel has achieved air supremacy over western Iran, including the capital, Tehran. It has decapitated Iran’s military leadership and eliminated most of its top nuclear scientists. A significant portion of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure—centrifuges, enrichment facilities, and uranium stockpiles—has been damaged or destroyed, along with much of its drone and ballistic missile manufacturing capabilities.

Estimates suggest the development of an Iranian nuclear weapon has been delayed by six to twelve months, though this remains uncertain. Israel has also reportedly destroyed around 40% of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers. Israeli officials claim their air campaign has met or exceeded all best-case objectives, and well ahead of schedule.

By any measure, the campaign has been a remarkable military success: Iran is on the back foot, and Israeli losses have been minimal.

But it’s important to keep this in perspective. We are still in the 'opening act' of this phase of the conflict. And what the campaign highlights, more than anything, are the inherent limitations of military success. While Israel may succeed in setting back Iran’s nuclear ambitions, completing the job likely requires direct U.S. involvement—which remains an open question.

Beyond that, no definitive conclusions can yet be drawn—only speculation about where things may go from here.

Here are some possible scenarios and their likelihood:

1. The U.S. joins the fight to finish off Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities. The Iranian people seize the opportunity of regime weakness to rise up in a democratic revolution, overthrow (or kill) the Ayatollah, and install a pro-Western government.

Likelihood: 0.5% - This is the most optimistic and least likely scenario.

2. The U.S. joins the fight to finish off Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities. To ensure its survival, the Iranian regime admits defeat and agrees to dismantle its nuclear program, pledges never to pursue nuclear weapons, and accepts strict international verification.

Likelihood: 5% - A face-saving capitulation is possible, but highly improbable.

3. The U.S. joins the fight to destroy Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities. The regime collapses and chaos ensues. A more repressive, anti-Western military dictatorship replaces the theocracy. It refuses any 'humiliating' deal and declares indefinite war on the West, launching a sustained campaign of attacks and terrorism.

Likelihood: 15% - A dangerous, chaotic outcome that cannot be ruled out.

4. The U.S. joins the fight to finish off Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. The regime survives, remains defiant, and refuses any agreement. It expands the war to include U.S. targets in the region and beyond, and attacks oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, it races to rebuild its nuclear program as its only real security guarantee.

Likelihood: 35% - A highly plausible and dangerous trajectory.

5. The U.S. stays out. Israel continues degrading Iran’s nuclear program but cannot eliminate it entirely. Under the pressure of Israeli attacks and the threat of potential U.S. involvement, Iran negotiates—via European intermediaries—a deal that includes surrendering near-weapons-grade uranium and halting centrifuge operations, under a strict verification regime. In return, Iran receives sanctions relief and other incentives.

Likelihood: 65% - The most realistic scenario.

How We Got Here

Bibi Netanyahu aggressively campaigns for the Trump administration to leave the JCPOA, the multi-national agreement that halts Iran's nuclear program. 

In May 2018 Trump withdraws from the JCPOA, notwithstanding the fact that in July 2017 his own administration had announced that Iran was respecting the terms of the agreement.

Trump announces a 'maximum economic pressure' campaign against Iran to stop them from developing nuclear weapons.  

Notwithstanding US withdrawal from the agreement and economic sanctions, Iran says that it will continue to respect the terms of the JCPOA. 

In 2019, Trump takes the unprecedented step of labeling the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a “foreign terrorist organization.” 

In January 2020 Trump orders the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, the architect of Iran's network of regional proxy forces.

In January 2020 Tehran responds to the killing of Soleimani by launching a barrage of missiles at US bases in Iraq causing dozens of brain concussion injuries but no deaths among US soldiers stationed there. Trump downplays the injuries publicly.

Trump fails to stop Kim Jong Un from obtaining nuclear weapons. Instead he cozies up to him, as well as to Vladimir Putin. 

Joe Biden takes office in January 2021.

Iran announces a February 2021 deadline, vowing that if oil and banking sanctions are not lifted, it will expel the U.N.’s nuclear inspectors from the country. The Biden administration takes a step with European partners to offer to begin talks with Iran for the first time in four years.

Talks with the Biden administration continue through 2022-23. There is a prisoner exchange between the United States and Iran, and Biden unfreezes $6 billion in Iranian oil revenues, resulting in a tentative, informal accord that sees Tehran pledge not to enrich uranium beyond its current level of 60 percent (which is virtually weapon's grade), and to better cooperate with UN nuclear inspectors. Also on the table is Iran stopping proxy terror groups from attacking US contractors in Iraq and Syria, stopping to provide Russia with ballistic missiles, and releasing three American-Iranians held in the Islamic Republic.  

Taking both Israel and Iran by surprise, Hamas terrorists from Gaza attack southern Israel on October 7, 2023. Hamas kills 1,195 Israelis and foreign nationals and takes 251 hostages. 

Iran's main regional proxy force Hezbollah announces it is joining the fight on October 8th and fires a barrage of rockets into northern Israel from southern Lebanon. This is effectively the beginning of Israel's war with Iran. 

Israel is now in a position where it has to respond forcefully in order reestablish its deterrence capabilities, which had been left in shambles by the massive security failure of October 7th.

Israel begins military operation in Gaza on October 13th 2023. On the 27th a full scale invasion is launched.

On April 1st 2024 Israeli aircraft attack the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing two Iranian generals, and seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers. Iran retaliates on the 13th by launching attacks against Israel with 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles. The attack is successfully repelled by Israel and allies without significant damage.

In September 2024 Israel intensifies its operations with two waves of electronic device attacks targeting Hezbollah's communication systems and militants. 

In September 2024 Israel assassinates Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah and his successor Hashem Safieddine in Beirut.

On October 1st 2024, the Israeli military begins an invasion of southern Lebanon. Israeli operations lead to the significant dismantling of Hezbollah's military infrastructure in southern Lebanon and the destruction of a large portion of its missile stockpile.

In October 2024 Iran attacks Israel with a barrage of 200 ballistic missiles in retaliation for Israel assassinating Hamas leader Ismail Haniya in Tehran. The attack is mostly successfully repelled by Israel and its allies without significant damage. 

In December 2024 the Assad regime in Syria, which had been supported by Iran through Hezbollah, falls to rebels. 

In January 2025, Trump takes office for his second term. 

In February 2025, Trump reinstates the maximum pressure campaign to push Iran into a new nuclear deal.

In April 2025, to Netanyahu's complete surprise, the Trump administration begins negotiations toward a new nuclear agreement in Oman. Five rounds of negotiations take place through the month of May with the Trump administration announcing that they are making progress. Round 6 of negotiations is schedule for June 15th. 

On June 12, 2025 IAEA finds Iran non-compliant with its nuclear obligations for the first time in 20 years.

Israel attacks targets across Iran on June 13, 2025.