Conquest of Gaza

Some are calling it the full occupation of Gaza. Apparently, this is what’s being contemplated by the Netanyahu cabinet. It may be a bluff, as some commentators have suggested — although to what end remains unclear. Perhaps it’s Netanyahu’s attempt to keep his faltering right-wing coalition intact, by reassuring the hardliners that Israel has no intention of making a deal with the terrorists, nor of halting operations and unilaterally withdrawing from Gaza.

Notably, Israel’s military leadership appears to oppose the idea, and that matters. The IDF understands the implications better than anyone.

In my view, the 'conquest' of Gaza would be disastrous on multiple levels.

First, it would deepen an already horrific situation. A full occupation would likely drag the IDF into a protracted urban guerrilla war, one that would exact a steep toll on young Israeli soldiers.

Second, it would make Israel fully responsible for the wellbeing of Gaza’s entire civilian population. The obligations of an occupying power under international law are immense. Given the current humanitarian catastrophe, this responsibility would be impossible to fulfill and would further damage  Israel’s already very damaged international standing.

Third, it would validate the claims of those who label Israel a settler-colonial state. Occupation would provide fresh evidence to those who argue that Israel's intentions go beyond defense and into permanent territorial domination.

Fourth, it would drain Israel’s resources, manpower, and strategic focus. The IDF is already stretched. A long-term occupation would sap Israel’s military and economic strength, possibly for years to come.

Fifth, it would likely doom the remaining hostages. A campaign of total conquest could destroy what little leverage remains in any potential negotiations for their safe return.

Sixth, it would all but guarantee the collapse of any further normalization efforts, especially with Saudi Arabia. The Abraham Accords would stall indefinitely.

This would all come on top of an already devastating policy failure: the decision to halt food aid shipments from January through May. Dozens of desperate civilians are now being killed every week at food distribution centers. It is a humanitarian debacle of the highest order.

For the sake of Israel’s moral integrity and strategic future, I dearly hope Netanyahu is bluffing.