The Cycle of Excess and Restraint

I have a big-picture perspective, always searching for patterns in small details. As I age and my personal future recedes into an expansive past, seeing history’s larger rhythms feels even more natural. I ask myself: What have I been a part of? What has led us to this moment? Are there historical antecedents? Is there a pattern?

I believe history follows the rhythm of human nature—a cycle of excess and restraint. Humans push ideas, fashions, inventions, and political movements to excess before realizing the need for restraint. This dynamic plays out in politics as the pendulum swings between liberalism and conservatism, capitalism and socialism. Each can become excessive and require correction.

Periods of excess are marked by individualism, self-enrichment, and unregulated freedoms. Society prioritizes individual rights over responsibilities, wealth over community, and patriotism as the pursuit of personal gain free from state interference. Periods of restraint, in contrast, emphasize social responsibility, community well-being, and a patriotism grounded in collective good.

Democracy, like all political and economic systems, moderates this cycle, allowing different expressions of excess and restraint depending on its structure. American democracy, an especially open system, exhibits a roughly 100-year cycle.

The current cycle of excess and restraint in America is as follows:

1. Industrial Revolution & Mass Migration (Late 19th Century) – Rapid economic growth creates vast opportunities but also deep inequalities.

2. The Gilded Age & The Roaring Twenties – Wealth concentrates among elites, government serves plutocrats, and society indulges in excess. Hyper-partisan “yellow journalism” thrives, spreading sensational disinformation.

3. Great Depression & WWII (1930s–1940s) – Economic collapse and global conflict end the excess, ushering in a period of collective sacrifice and renewed values.

4. Post-War Restraint (1950s–1970s) – The wartime generation prioritizes national unity, social programs, and global leadership. Civil rights movements and social justice initiatives expand democratic ideals.

5. Shift to Excess (1980s–1990s) – Reaganomics, financial deregulation, and paper wealth fuel a return to greed and individualism. American values shift from idealism to lifestyle indulgence.

6. Economic Instability & Political Cynicism (2000s–2010s) – Wage stagnation and growing inequality define the era. The dot-com crash, the 2008 financial crisis, and endless wars undermine public trust. Cynicism replaces civic responsibility.

7. New Gilded Age (2020s) – Billionaire oligarchs wield political power. Social media functions as modern yellow journalism, spreading disinformation. Trust in government, courts, and democracy erodes. America retreats from global leadership.

8. Impending Upheaval – Just as the first Gilded Age collapsed into the Great Depression and World War, today’s excess is likely to end in turmoil. The question is: what form will it take?

History suggests that cycles of excess always give way to restraint, but the transition is never smooth. The challenge now is whether America can enter a new period of restraint through reform—or whether crisis will force the shift.