Cart Pulls Horse

How does the recognition of Palestinian statehood by Western allies make any sense? A political entity without clear borders, no means of defense, no independence, and no capacity for self-sustainability—how can such a state be recognized? It's putting the cart before the horse. Recognition doesn’t create a viable state, it merely offers a symbolic gesture that lacks substance, and that's counterproductive in a number of ways.

The argument that recognizing Palestine will encourage a two-state solution is flawed. Israel, the more powerful actor in the equation, has made it clear they’re unwilling to participate in such a solution. How does recognizing Palestine when one side refuses to negotiate advance peace? Recognition, in this context doesn’t promote a two-state solution, it widens a growing divide.

The western allies argue that recognition lends legitimacy to the Palestinian Authority (PA). But the PA’s legitimacy is questionable, even among Palestinians, many of whom view it as corrupt and ineffective. How does this "legitimacy" support the creation of a state when the entity being legitimized lacks the internal credibility to govern effectively?

A key concern is what recognition of Palestinian statehood would mean for Hamas. If the October 7th attack is seen as a path to statehood, it sets a precedent that violence can lead to political gains, undermining the importance of peaceful negotiation. Furthermore, Hamas’s influence within the Palestinian political landscape is growing, and recognizing a Palestinian state at this moment could empower Hamas, making them more relevant to the Palestinian identity, not less.

Given that Hamas and the PA have fought for control of Gaza, it’s hard to see how any future Palestinian state can be unified. Recognition is likely to exacerbate internal divisions and lead to further civil conflict.

From an Israeli perspective, external pressure for Palestinian statehood will harden opposition. After the October 7th attacks, many Israelis view negotiations with groups like Hamas as dangerous. Any move towards Palestinian statehood, particularly without a unified Palestinian government or clear intentions, risks deepening Israeli mistrust and resistance. This makes any genuine two-state solution even more distant.

The Palestinians themselves are not united on what statehood means. Some factions view it as the first step toward eliminating Israel. Until there’s internal consensus among Palestinians on what statehood entails—whether it’s peaceful coexistence or the total rejection of Israel—recognizing a state that’s divided on its purpose is premature and counterproductive.

Recognition of a Palestinian State when none exists also does further damage to a UN that has shown itself to be impotent on matters of international security and terrorism, and misguided in the way it handles human rights and international justice.

The most egregious aspect of this happening at this time is that Hamas continues to hold Israeli hostages, releasing them was not a condition of recognition. So recognition is worse than just political theatre, as the Israeli ambassador to the UN has said. It puts a stamp of approval on the use of political violence, further divides the Palestinian leadership, and further hardens Israeli resistance. 

A meaningful peace process, built on mutual understanding and compromise, cannot take place until the Palestinians can agree on what they want. And by handing over, free of charge as it were, the critical incentive of international recognition, the net result is the exact opposite. 

A New Man

CLICK HERE TO HEAR THE SONG

Bump stocks and automatic guns,

Volleyball and video games.

Cruise ships and particle physics,

Fashion brands and User names.

American Football and Taylor Swift,

Comment sections and mineral baths.

Crypto-currency and NFTs,

People who vote for sociopaths.

There's still so much, 

I don't understand.

But trust me when I say, 

I'm becoming a new man.

Jesus Christ and McDonald's meals,

Billionaires and content creation.

Tik-Tok influencers and school shootings,

Anabolic steroids for recreation.

Los Angeles, Late Night talk shows,

Pole vault and Biathalon.

Coltrane's album 'A Love Supreme',

Greek frappé and Ozzy Osbourne.

There's still so much, 

I don't understand.

But trust me when I say, 

I'm becoming a new man.

James Joyce and machines that learn, 

By artificial intelligence.

Plastic surgery, music streaming,

The epidemic of loneliness.

What some people call patriotic,

The fuss made over diversity.

Feeling at home with so many homeless,

Cancer, famine, and poverty.

There's still so much, 

I don't understand.

But trust me when I say, 

I'm becoming a new man.

What it means that I was born,

The distance to the closest star.

Manic-Depression and gravity,

Love, hate and peace and war.

There's still so much, 

I don't understand.

But trust me when I say, 

I'm becoming a new man.

Today I saw

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Today I saw 

an injured songbird

lying on the pavement—

probably 

a car.

I was walking to work,

through the parking lot,

about to slip in 

through the exit 

next to the garage door

of the building,

when I noticed the small body—

a Yellow Warbler,

curled like a fist,

wings folded tight

like fingers.

The morning sun shimmered

across its feathers,

flashed green and red

with each strained breath.

I stopped.

Wondered what to do:

Should I pick it up?

Hold it 

in my cupped palms,

carry it inside,

try to save it—

How?

I bent low,

close enough 

to see the beak,

sharp as a syringe,

trembling,

a tiny bead

eye.

The bird was afraid—

not of death,

not of pain,

but of me.

I wished it well,

went inside.

Forever Is Now

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The pursuit of happiness 

takes you away from happiness.

The pursuit of meaning

takes you away from meaning.

The pursuit of wisdom

takes you away from wisdom.

The pursuit of authenticity

takes you away from authenticity.

The pursuit of modesty

takes you away from modesty.

The pursuit of love 

takes you away from love.

To approach, stay still.

To find, 

refrain from seeking.

Everywhere is here.

Forever is now.

Whatever We're About

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I was always wrong,

In most everything I thought.

So don't listen to the things,

I said when we fought.

Yeah I may have meant,

Everything in my head,

Still, pay no attention,

To whatever I said.

The future was for me, 

Part of some fascination.

No way it could match, 

All my expectations.

We’ll marry and have kids,

Or maybe we won't. 

They'll decide to have kids, 

Until they don't.

It's all okay, it's all okay,

I promise it’ll all turn out.

It’s all okay, it’s all okay,

We’ll figure out,

Whatever we’re about. 

There are no big storylines,

So don’t look for a saviour.

Just ask a friend,

To do a little favour.

Maybe just maybe,

Someone will come through.

And some of your wishes,

Might even come true.

I’ll play you a song,

Nothing too fancy.

You might get inspired,

To do a little dancing.

You’ll tell me a story,

Cause we all have a few.

I’ll drink to your health,

And you’ll drink to mine too.

It’s all okay, it’s all okay,

I promise it’ll all turn out.

It’s all okay, it’s all okay,

We’ll figure out, 

Whatever we’re about.

The Danger of a Weak President

Charlie Kirk's assassination was foreseeable. Not his assassination in particular, but political violence in general, because it was already on the rise. It follows the assassination attempt on trump, his pardoning of the violent Jan 6 seditionists and the leaders of the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys, and an uptick in a number of other acts of political violence since he took office. 

Political violence is symptomatic of the deterioration of rule of law and democracy. It happens when people lose trust in the institutions that support law and order. No American President in recent history has done more to undermine law and order than the convicted felon-President. 

Political violence increases when: 

a. It's outwardly and implicitly encouraged by leaders against political rivals. Violence is rhetorically normalized.

b. There is a breakdown in the rule of law. The law enforcement and criminal justice system are weaponized and politicized. The guilty get off scott free, or get unearned clemency, and the innocent go to jail.

No President is recent memory has done more to weaponize politics, demonize political rivals, and tacitly or actively encouraged political violence, as Donald J. Trump. This has the impact of encouraging violence among his supporters as well as among those who oppose him, a vicious cycle. Violence is contagious. 

This is a perilous moment for America, but for trump who thrives in chaos, it's political gold. An opportunity to crank up the heated rhetoric, when any normal politican who actually cared about his country would be doing the opposite. Predictably, in a statement from the Oval Office he blamed the 'radical Leftists', implictly encouraging further violence. The politicization of this tragedy feeds trump's agenda of consolidating authoritarian power and militarizing the streets. A very weak president, which is what trump is, weaker than ever, is an even more dangerous president because the only way he can maintain power is to further divide the country and radicalize his supporters.     

I would hope that Americans understand the political dynamic underway and resist it. I'm not terribly encouraged that they have the capacity or will.

Strike On Qatar?

Israel bombed Qatar. 

Actually they bombed a residential building in the capital city Doha, purported to house the headquarters of the internationally-recognized terrorist organization Hamas, with whom they are at war, and who holds their non-combatant citizens as hostages.

The international community is almost unanimously wringing its hands or outright condemning the attack. The Prime Minister of Canada called the attack 'an intolerable expansion of violence'. Trump said he was 'very unhappy' with the attack, impotent as usual.  

Netanyahu said that the decision was made to attack the day Hamas gunmen attacked a bus stop outside Jerusalem killing six people.

So let's think about this.

What we see happening in real time is the unravelling of the international order. The power vacuum left by the weakness of the United States is being filled, by new alliances - China, Russia, North Korea, and India in Asia, and in the Middle East, Israel asserting itself as the preeminent military power in that region. In Europe, the power vacuum issue is being fought out in Ukraine. 

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres condemned the attack, saying “I condemn this flagrant violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Qatar.” He is saying this because the Israeli action is also endemic of the abject failure of the UN to deal with terrorism. 

At the heart of Israel's action is a question: Do we live in a world where terrorism is acceptable or not? Will we accept countries (member states of the UN) providing safe haven and funding for terrorism?    

On the respected podcast The Rest Is Politics, Alastair Campbell said that if Israel was planning this attack all along it means they were negotiating for the release of their hostages in bad faith. An astonishingly naive comment. So, the government of Israel is in bad faith doing whatever it can to get its citizens released from captivity? Is there no distinction between the government of a nation-state acting on behalf of its citizens and a terrorist organization? Terrorists holding hostages is the very definition of bad faith.   

After strongly condemning the attack, which of course they had to do, the Qatari PM said that it would not deter them from acting as mediators for further negotiation. I read this as a wink and a nod. They either knew or at least expected the attack was coming and tacitly consented.  

I am in favour of attacking terrorists. Even if it means attacking them in sovereign countries who give them safe-haven. And especially if the terrorists hold your hostages. This was not an attack on Qatar, and the Qataris know it. It was not an attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Qatar, as the UN SecGen said. It was Israel acting in defence of the international order against terrorists who want to undermine it. 

Because Israel realizes that if they they aren't going to do it, no one will.