Marketing Meets Reality

Eventually, the truth is known. Sometimes it takes a very long time. Sometimes not so long. In the current round of the Israel–Iran conflict, the truth about the actual damage will be known relatively soon. But the shaping of the narrative—regardless of the facts—began within hours of the U.S. attack. There was no time to waste. Victory was claimed. Officials insisted that the target was "completely, totally obliterated," a phrase repeated by various members of the administration so it would be echoed by the media—and many outlets happily obliged.

The only problem is that “obliterated” is technically a meaningless term when it comes to the damage assessment of a military operation. It is transparently spin. Military officials use three words with specific operational meaning: a target is considered destroyed when it is eliminated entirely; defeated when it is rendered unusable for the time being; or delayed when it is temporarily incapacitated but repairable.

We will soon know the true status of Iran’s nuclear program and, in particular, the three targets hit by the U.S. B-2s. An initial Pentagon assessment—leaked and largely corroborated by Israeli intelligence—indicates that Fordow, Iran’s main nuclear development site, was nowhere near “destroyed.” It wasn’t even “defeated.” The preliminary consensus appears to be that it was "delayed"—for a period of months to a year.

If this is confirmed, it would be a worst-case scenario. Not only has Iran’s nuclear program survived, but Iran now finds itself in an extremely vulnerable position—cornered, so to speak—which is likely to embolden hardliners within the regime. Rather than discouraging nuclear development, this attack may add urgency to their pursuit of a weapon. Iran may now be more motivated to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and use any negotiations as little more than a smokescreen.

I suspect the Iranians either knew the American strike had largely failed or, at the very least, had moved their enriched uranium beforehand. Their “retaliation” appeared deliberately symbolic: a carefully calibrated response with advanced warning to ensure minimal damage. It was a savvy strategic maneuver—and the weak-willed, unprincipled, and clueless trump took the bait. He publicly thanked Iran for the warning and rushed to declare a ceasefire, possibly without even consulting the principal combatants. It seemed obvious—at least to me—that he was being played, again. His public outburst the next morning, criticizing Israel for threatening the ceasefire he had unilaterally imposed, sealed the deal. The mullahs are smiling.

How did we go from Netanyahu dancing a jig at U.S. involvement over the weekend to the mullahs of Iran throwing a party at the announcement of a ceasefire two days later? Since when did following international conflicts give analysts a case of whiplash? The answer is clear: since an impetuous man-child took over the White House.

Netanyahu maneuvered trump into attacking Iran.

Iran maneuvered trump into getting Israel to stop attacking before the job was complete.

On the chessboard of international affairs, there are players and there are pieces. In this game, Netanyahu and Khamenei are the players, and trump is a piece—an important and powerful one, like a Queen that can move in all directions—but a piece nonetheless. The same can be said about the conflict in Ukraine. The players are Putin and Zelensky, and they are maneuvering trump around the board as well.

Now that trump has declared victory, branding the conflict the “12-Day War” (a reference to Israel’s Six-Day War), what will he do when the official damage assessments say otherwise? Admit he was mistaken—as if he’s ever done that—and attack again? He’s painted the U.S. into a corner once more. If the administration continues to insist that the targets were “obliterated,” we may be looking at a case where the cover-up is worse than the blunder itself.

I have a feeling Iran will move to encourage trump to get 'negotiations' back underway. 

I have a feeling Netanyahu won't let that process play out without making some moves of his own, especially as attention now turns back to Gaza, which is still going very badly.