Where We Are Headed

Israel has achieved air supremacy over western Iran, including the capital, Tehran. It has decapitated Iran’s military leadership and eliminated most of its top nuclear scientists. A significant portion of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure—centrifuges, enrichment facilities, and uranium stockpiles—has been damaged or destroyed, along with much of its drone and ballistic missile manufacturing capabilities.

Estimates suggest the development of an Iranian nuclear weapon has been delayed by six to twelve months, though this remains uncertain. Israel has also reportedly destroyed around 40% of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers. Israeli officials claim their air campaign has met or exceeded all best-case objectives, and well ahead of schedule.

By any measure, the campaign has been a remarkable military success: Iran is on the back foot, and Israeli losses have been minimal.

But it’s important to keep this in perspective. We are still in the 'opening act' of this phase of the conflict. And what the campaign highlights, more than anything, are the inherent limitations of military success. While Israel may succeed in setting back Iran’s nuclear ambitions, completing the job likely requires direct U.S. involvement—which remains an open question.

Beyond that, no definitive conclusions can yet be drawn—only speculation about where things may go from here.

Here are some possible scenarios and their likelihood:

1. The U.S. joins the fight to finish off Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities. The Iranian people seize the opportunity of regime weakness to rise up in a democratic revolution, overthrow (or kill) the Ayatollah, and install a pro-Western government.

Likelihood: 0.5% - This is the most optimistic and least likely scenario.

2. The U.S. joins the fight to finish off Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities. To ensure its survival, the Iranian regime admits defeat and agrees to dismantle its nuclear program, pledges never to pursue nuclear weapons, and accepts strict international verification.

Likelihood: 5% - A face-saving capitulation is possible, but highly improbable.

3. The U.S. joins the fight to destroy Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities. The regime collapses and chaos ensues. A more repressive, anti-Western military dictatorship replaces the theocracy. It refuses any 'humiliating' deal and declares indefinite war on the West, launching a sustained campaign of attacks and terrorism.

Likelihood: 15% - A dangerous, chaotic outcome that cannot be ruled out.

4. The U.S. joins the fight to finish off Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. The regime survives, remains defiant, and refuses any agreement. It expands the war to include U.S. targets in the region and beyond, and attacks oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, it races to rebuild its nuclear program as its only real security guarantee.

Likelihood: 35% - A highly plausible and dangerous trajectory.

5. The U.S. stays out. Israel continues degrading Iran’s nuclear program but cannot eliminate it entirely. Under the pressure of Israeli attacks and the threat of potential U.S. involvement, Iran negotiates—via European intermediaries—a deal that includes surrendering near-weapons-grade uranium and halting centrifuge operations, under a strict verification regime. In return, Iran receives sanctions relief and other incentives.

Likelihood: 65% - The most realistic scenario.