So there’s a ceasefire? Yes? No? Maybe?
I know why Trump agreed to it. The ‘war’ was unpopular and risked getting out of hand. And oh yeah there’s the Nobel Peace Prize he still has his eye on.
If they did, I know why Iran agreed to it. They are running out of missiles and more importantly launchers. They don't do ‘war’ well. They are much more adept at terrorism and proxy war, and also using their military to repress their own population. I suspect they still have some nuclear weapons development facilities intact and fissile material stashed away. You have to wonder what the emergency meeting between Iranian officials and Putin was all about, but we can imagine.
If they did, I know why Israel agreed to it. They were running out of defence system rockets. And probably did as much as they could do to degrade Iranian capabilities.
And if you think this is over, keep thinking.
And here’s a question to ponder. If indeed Iran - while severely weakened, and at risk of being truly obliterated by escalating the war with US - took steps to preserve itself diplomatically, does it throw cold water on Netanyahu’s forever claim that the Islamic regime is apocalyptic to the point of suicidal? That was the crux of his argument. If Iran got a nuclear weapon they would certainly use it against Israel even if it meant knowing Israel would respond with their own bomb. Mutually assured destruction was not a deterrent to the crazy mullahs. Seems like they care about survival after all.
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Ceasefire? I’ll believe it when I see it. The world is naive, as you point out, that this is the end of it, much as no more missiles would be a great idea. Unless all of the nuclear materials are destroyed while this regime reigns in terror, this is not the end of it. The good news: the entrance to the notorious Iranian prison where political prisoners were detained and tortured have been blown off. And the Crown Prince of Iran is urging the people of Iran to overthrow the mullahs. trump and the Nobel Prize for Peace is a stomach-churning thought. Stay tuned for more news.
As of now, no one is sure if Trump jumped the gun on social media. He might have. The NYTimes is reporting that Reporting that the reason they sent B2s west toward Guam as a diversion from the actual B2 strike force leaving Missouri heading east, is because Trump kept telegraphing on social
Media what they were planning and pentagon officials decided it was the only way to make sure Trump wouldn't tip the Iranians off. Presumably that’s how the Iranians knew to remove most of the enriched uranium from Fordo. What a knucklehead.
You couldn’t write this script and sell it as a book or movie. Do you think trump was deliberately trying to help Iran? The Iran strike on Qatar seems to be a face-saving gesture ONLY. The country does seem to be in a very weakened state. Yet they still have some nuclear capabilities remaining. Not good.
The question I have is whether the perpetration of acts of terror (which I believe will be the next phase of this war, unfortunately) will be included in the ceasefire agreement. My fear is that the wily mullahs are buying themselves an end to the high-tech precision missile warfare that they cannot win against Israel and the US in favor of a campaign of terror across the Western world, which they can win. They could, in other words, be changing things up , changing the game, so that it's now in their favor.
I suspect that’s exactly right. Unfortunately. Why fight the war you aren’t going to win, when you can fight the asymmetrical war you can.
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