19th Century Thinking and Butterflies

One thing the war with Iran has made clear is that 19th-century political thinking doesn’t work in the 21st century.

Actually, that way of thinking died in 1945. World War II was the last conflict where you could bomb an opponent into submission—and even then, it required devastation on a scale the world has never seen: roughly 75 million dead, including 50 million civilians, and the use of atomic weapons.

Since then, the pattern has been unmistakable. In Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, and most recently in Ukraine, overwhelming military superiority has failed to produce decisive victory. Again and again, stronger powers have found themselves bogged down, stalemated, or strategically defeated by weaker adversaries.

The lesson is hard but clear: the capacity to “completely obliterate” an enemy—language used by trump and hegseth—by conventional force no longer translates into strategic victory.

At the same time, when a butterfly flaps its wings on one side of the world it can dramatically impact the opposite side. In this case the butterfly is a Shahed drone. The other side of the world is the Strait of Hormuz, and the dramatic impact is North American gas prices, food supplies, inflation and even employment.  

In the past 75 years of global integration have made countries economically and politically inseparable. What happens in one region now reverberates everywhere. Power today is not just military—it’s systemic.

The paradigm has shifted. There is no returning to spheres of influence or clean geopolitical separation. Efforts at de-globalization—whether through trade barriers or political ruptures like Brexit—run up against a reality that is already too interconnected to unwind without enormous cost, especially to those attempting it.

The global system the United States helped build has become so deeply embedded that even it cannot dismantle it without harming itself. In that context, large-scale war is not just destructive—it is self-sabotage.

And that, ultimately, is the paradoxical good news.

Even the most powerful nations are constrained. “Might makes right” is no longer a workable doctrine. Durable outcomes require negotiation, coordination, and restraint.

Which is why the shortcomings of the United Nations feel so frustrating. Because in a world like this, its role is not optional—it is essential.

The most critical problems are no longer local. Poverty, conflict, and instability in one region spill across borders as migration crises. Disease spreads globally, as the COVID-19 made unmistakably clear. And then there's climate change.

There is no going back, and trump and his accolytes ultimately won't be able to do anything about it.

Wars of Choice

I have too many friends cheering on this war. Mostly supporters of Israel.

I get it. Israel has been in a de facto state of war since its founding—attacked or threatened from all sides. My Israeli friends are tired of being on the defensive. It feels good, for once, to take the initiative. To demonstrate strength.

With Iran, it’s long been a war through proxies—the dirtiest kind of war. So they say: bring it into the open. Get it over with. The regime is vulnerable, the timing is right—do it now, on our terms.

It makes sense—but only if you win.

And in this case, there’s really only one definition of “win”: regime change. Not just any regime change, but one that produces a more moderate government—one willing to abandon the revolutionary project and rejoin the international community.

That’s a lot of “ifs.” A lot has to go perfectly. It's the equivalent of drawing a royal flush from a deck of 52 playing cards. Wars have a way of going sideways—not just sideways, but in every terrible direction at once.

We’re seeing that happen now, in real time.

That’s part of why I never cheer for war, and I’m not cheering for this one.

The first reason is obvious: death and destruction. It’s always the most vulnerable—on both sides—who pay the highest price.

But there are times when war is justified. As a last resort. Which begs the question; how do you know when it’s a last resort?

Self-defense is the clearest case. If you’re attacked, you have no choice but to defend your sovereignty and your people.

Another case is when good-faith diplomacy has been exhausted—when there’s an unbridgeable impasse. War becomes, however tragically, a means of resolving a political dispute.

A preemptive war can sometimes be justified if it is genuinely defensive—if there is a credible, imminent threat.

But “wars of choice” are, by definition, not last resorts. They are elective. And calling them that is often a euphemism for something morally indefensible and legally unjustifiable.

That’s why the claim that the U.S. had to strike Iran preemptively—because of an imminent attack on American assets—matters so much. If that claim is false, then the justification collapses.

Another argument was that Israel was going to act regardless, and the U.S. needed to move first.

But that doesn’t hold.

If Washington was concerned about being targeted, it could have objected and stayed out. If Israel proceeded anyway, the U.S. could have maintained distance. If Iran then chose to respond by striking American targets, a U.S. response would clearly fall under self-defense.

More likely, Iran’s response would have been calibrated—symbolic, as we’ve seen before—precisely to avoid escalation.

That’s not the path that was taken. The U.S. chose to go to war.

That decision is not equivalent to Israel’s. If the goal was to support Israel, there were many ways to do so that did not involve sending bombers.

The Crossroads

No, Vladimir Putin does not have kompromat on trump. That’s not why trump consistently sides with him.

The explanation is much simpler: Trump idolizes Putin. He wants to be him.

Putin represents a kind of power trump has always admired—personal, unconstrained, untouchable. By many accounts, Putin is also extraordinarily wealthy, perhaps the richest man in the world. Trump has always been driven by that same obsession with wealth and status. Over the past decade, it’s become increasingly clear that Putin is not just a counterpart in trump’s mind, not just a model, but someone who provides trump with narcissistic supply, a drug trump needs to feel good about himself. It's that powerful.

In February 2022, just over four years ago, Russia invaded Ukraine. The expectation in Moscow was clear: Kyiv would fall in days, Zelensky would flee, and the Ukrainian government would collapse.

It didn’t happen.

Instead, the war dragged on. Ukraine defended itself with remarkable resilience. Zelensky emerged as one of the defining leaders of this moment. And Russia paid a staggering price in lives and resources, by some estimates an astounding 7,000 to 8,000 casualties per week.

How did Putin get it so wrong?

The answer is simple. He was working with a distorted version of reality.

Putin surrounded himself with loyalists who told him what he wanted to hear. They painted a picture that confirmed his assumptions and filtered out inconvenient truths. That is the Achilles’ heel of authoritarian systems. We saw it with Joseph Stalin. We saw it with Adolf Hitler. Over time, reality stops reaching the top.

Something similar—though not identical—is happening with trump.

He, too, has surrounded himself with people who reinforce his instincts rather than challenge them. That’s how he’s ended up in an unwinnable situation.

Yes, Benjamin Netanyahu likely played a role, pressing him to act and framing the moment as urgent. But that’s only part of the story. Trump was already predisposed toward confrontation with Iran. He’s spoken about it repeatedly. This isn’t new.

And now, once again, he’s backed himself into a corner, as he always does.

In trump’s mind, the instinct is to act like his idol—to double down, to project strength, to never retreat. But the United States is not Russia. Trump is not Putin. And now we're witnessing reality asserting itself.

The U.S. is at a crossroads.

On one side are regional allies and partners who expect follow-through and don’t want to be left exposed. On the other side are skyrocketing gas prices and rising costs, public anger, and a MAGA base that feels politically betrayed. 

My sense is that trump will do what he often does: declare victory and walk away, leaving others to deal with the disasterous consequences. It would be the smart move, because the alternative would be catastrophic.

Then again—when has trump ever chosen the smart move?

Learning from my mother-in-law

For a couple of years now, my 87-year-old mother-in-law has been living with Alzheimer’s. Over the past six months, the decline has been steep—steep enough that she’s had to move into assisted living, and soon likely into a facility that offers a higher level of care.

We had her over for brunch yesterday with family—our daughter and her boyfriend, a daughter-in-law visiting from Vancouver with her son, and her other granddaughter who’s studying at McGill. It had been a while since the Vancouver cousins had seen her.

She didn’t know who they were. Her own grandchildren. Of course, they were heartbroken.

The truth is, she doesn’t recognize my children or me either. My daughter, who visits her every week, has to reintroduce herself each time.

There’s something deeply sad about knowing someone your whole life and no longer being known by them.

And yet—this is only part of the story.

My mother-in-law is not unhappy. Each encounter feels, to her, like a first meeting. And she seems to genuinely enjoy it.

My daughter’s boyfriend had never met her before. Sitting beside them on the couch, I watched him engage her with a kind of effortless warmth. He asked questions the way you would when meeting someone new, and she answered as best she could—sometimes in fragments, sometimes drifting, sometimes not making sense at all.

And he just… went with it.

No correction. No discomfort. No need to anchor her to reality.

He met her where she was.

Watching them together, I realized something: this “first meeting” is now the reality for all of us. And somehow, he understood instinctively what the rest of us are still learning—that connection doesn’t depend on shared memory. It depends on presence.

In her own way, my mother-in-law is teaching us something profound: how to accept her on her terms, with patience and love.

To let go of who she was to us, and be fully with who she is now.

At one point, I told her something I’ve always carried with me. When I first joined the family, she said to me: "You’re not my son-in-law—you’re no different from my own children."

That openness—that generosity—defined both her and my father-in-law. It wasn’t something I was used to, having grown up in a more rigid and judgmental household.

My mother-in-law chose to be that way, in part, because she hadn’t been fully accepted by her own in-laws. They treated her differently from their daughter. She made a quiet vow to do better—to treat the spouses of her children as her own.

And she did.

When I told her this, something flickered. Recognition, maybe. Her eyes lit up. She nodded. And she recalled fragments of memory, and pieced together how her in-laws had favoured their daughter.

And it struck me then: Now it’s our turn, to meet her where she is.

To offer her the same open, generous, non-judgmental love she gave so freely to us. It doesn't matter if she she knows who we are. What matters is the moment we are sharing together.

I'm Very Nervous

Back to publicly venting my anxiety.

I’m nervous.

I haven’t felt this nervous since October 7th, 2023—and this time it feels like it could get much worse.

It started a couple of weeks ago, when U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to throw Israel (and, by extension, Jews more broadly) under the bus by suggesting Israel forced the U.S.'s hand to preemptively attack Iran.

Then this week came the very public resignation of the Director of Counterterrorism, Joe Kent. He echoed that framing, saying there was no imminent threat to the United States from Iran, and explicitly blamed Israel and its American lobby for pressuring the U.S. into war.

Yesterday, Netanyahu made an unusual public statement about the war—something that, in itself, signals how serious the situation has become. It read as damage control. When asked about the Israeli attack on the South Pars gas field, he claimed Israel acted alone. That directly contradicted earlier statements from Israeli officials, who said the operation had been coordinated with the U.S. No one seems to believe him.

When asked whether Israel had “dragged” the U.S. into the war, Netanyahu deflected: “Does anyone really think someone can tell President Trump what to do? Come on.”

My answer: the most transparently transactional president in modern U.S. history? Ugh—Yeah, of course.

Iran responded to the South Pars attack by striking Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City—the world’s largest LNG facility.

According to Michael Wolff, it’s no coincidence that trump quickly claimed he had no prior knowledge of the South Pars attack and urged Israel to stop targeting energy infrastructure. Wolff said trump got a call from Jared Kushner who warned that his Qatari patrons were extremely unhappy.

Which brings me back to the underlying dynamic. According to Wolff’s sources, many inside trump’s orbit believe Israel pushed him into this war.

Meanwhile, in the MAGA conspiracy ecosystem, the narrative is hardening: that Jews are pulling the strings—Kushner and Netanyahu are controlling trump.

The movement itself is splitting. On one side, a pro-Israel, pro-war faction, led by Jewish commentators Ben Shapiro, Mark Levin and Laura Loomer. On the other side, an anti-Israel, anti-war faction led by popular (Gentile) podcasters Tucker Carlsen, Megyn Kelly and Nick Fuentes that often frames the situation in openly antisemitic terms.

All of this is compounded by the lack of a clear, convincing justification for the war, and the absence of any real effort to rally international allies, and diffuse responsibility.

Add in the Epstein cover-up. Add the risk of pro-Iranian terrorism. Add the lingering global anger over Gaza.

It feels like all the ingredients are there, from both the far right and the far left, for antisemitism at a level we haven't seen in generations.

And that’s making me very nervous.

In the Miklat

CLICK HERE TO HEAR AUTHOR READ

for Kelp

I'm not in the miklat;

but I imagine

if I were in Jerusalem

with you,

I'd have my guitar

and you'd have yours.

Or if there was no time

because the alert

went off again at 3am,

and we dragged ourselves

down in pjs and slippers,

we'd at least

have our blues harps.

While we waited

for the all clear

we'd fill the silence

with Dylan and Cohen,

between tunes

debate

who was the better songwriter.

I'd tell you Dylan was a poser,

always wearing

someone else's costume,

while Cohen dug deep

into the darkness

of his own

emotional rubble.

When we got tired of that

I'd pull out

my bilingual copy

of Shirei Ahava

and we'd read aloud —

you first in Hebrew,

me next,

from the facing page

in English —

all the biblical allusions

lost in translation,

(hiding inside the words,

as it were),

milot miklat,

you'd joke alliteratively—

words of shelter

from the storm.

We'd listen

for the boom of a strike

above our heads

the crash of collapse,

and wonder

if ZAKA

had already been 

dispatched.

The Big Picture

What you see always depends on what you are looking at.

Me, I'm a big picture guy, not someone who focuses on details.

Sometimes that's a good thing, sometimes it's not.

It's good because I tend not to sweat the small stuff.

It's bad for detail-oriented work, like writing or art-making, where getting the details just right matters so much.

Even before trump was first voted into office, from my big-picture perch I saw the potential for disaster.

Disaster because he was so obviously inexperienced, and so clearly temperamentally unfit to wield so much power.

Disaster because he had no appreciation for institutions or the international alliances he was inheriting.

Worse than indifference, his instinct seemed destructive. He appeared to want to tear down the foundations of American democracy and dismantle the network of alliances and organizations that had maintained global stability since the end of WWII.

The fact that he was new to the job — and not particularly competent or disciplined — limited the damage he could do in his first term.

Having experienced trump version 1.0, I never imagined Americans would choose him a second time. Especially after January 6th.

I was wrong.

It turns out Americans have very short memories.

The second term has confirmed my worst fears. This time, with a compliant and subservient Congress, he is largely unleashed to use the powers of the presidency according to his whims.

My sense was that his first priority in a second term — now that he understood the levers of power — would be to enrich himself, his family, and his friends.

And Americans would pay for it in spades.

The tariffs fit under that heading. So do the lawsuits against corporations, law firms, and universities aimed at extracting settlements. The “gifts” from foreign leaders. The cryptocurrency ventures. The project-fundraising grifts. The selling of pardons. And most recently, the war profiteering — seizing Venezuela’s oil and the kids launching a drone business.

The second priority would be the only other thing he truly craves: attention, fame, legacy.

Hence the constant television appearances, sometimes twice a day. Dominating headlines. Putting his name and face on prominent government buildings. Erecting monuments to himself — the ballroom, the victory arch. His obsessive pursuit of the Nobel Peace Prize.

But it also extends to more ominous gestures: the abduction of a government leader in Venezuela, the war with Iran, and talk of taking over Cuba or even Greenland.

Trump cares above all about appearing strong. His worldview is simple: might makes right.

And the more easily he can deploy the military, the easier it becomes to use it again.

Trashing international law, alliances, and global institutions is not really the goal.

It’s simply collateral damage in his pursuit of self-aggrandizement.

Most of the political arguments I end up having with people come down to a difference between looking at the big picture or the small picture.

People who focus only on Israel’s immediate security, for example, are happy with the war with Iran. They see weapons depots destroyed, military infrastructure damaged, leaders assassinated — and they count those as victories.

But that’s the small picture.

They’re looking at the battles, not the war.

They aren’t thinking about the broader ramifications for regional stability, for international alliances, or even for Jews living in the diaspora.

Big picture, bombs are replaceable. Leaders are replaceable. Even armies are replaceable.

What isn’t easily replaced is stability.

Or trust.

Or credibility.

Once those are gone, they take generations to rebuild.