The Day After

What happened on November 3rd was a shift of political tectonic plates in the US. I don't use the term lightly.

Because when something so dramatic occurs, like an earthquake, we see the immediate results right away, but struggle to understand exactly how it happened and what it means.

As complex as geology is, earthquakes don't hold a candle (to mix my metaphors) to politics.

Here are a few of my big-picture takeaways in the immediate aftermath.

1. People are growing less and less patient in an era of declining trust

In the entire 20th century, there were only four presidents who served a single four-year term before losing re-election. In the first quarter of the 21st century, there have been three (including trump’s two non-consecutive terms). Consecutive terms have been the norm until recently. No more. It's because we live in an era of declining trust.

People want change more often and results faster. Notwithstanding the hold trump's cult of personality has over his base, the electorate is generally becoming less partisan, not more. It's what made his cult of personality possible in the first place. Trump is really neither a Republican nor a Democrat. The number of voters identifying as independents is growing. That means the electorate will continue to become more fickle, and political swings are likely to continue.

Politicians will have to figure out how to deal effectively with this trend. And the answer isn't to move faster on the most extreme aspects of their agendas while they have the political capital to do so, appeasing the most extreme elements of their coalitions. On the contrary, it's to tack toward small victories that build confidence in their party, and by extension in government as a whole. I dearly hope that the Democrats in the new Congress understand this.

2. Messaging is as important as policy in the era of short attentions spans

Because the messaging environment is so overwhelming and confusing, messages have to be kept as simple and coherent as possible. The Democrats won because they were able to keep the narrative straightforward and triangulate several issues at once: pocketbook issues, the war in Iran, and corruption. Democrats connected the dots clearly and hammered away at this unified, three-pronged narrative, which corresponded to the lived reality of voters.

When in government, messaging has to be constant and consistent, something else that trump understood, both to his advantage and to his detriment. This was Biden's greatest failing during his term. He was a terrible communicator. Democrats need to learn the lesson that, in the new media environment, the campaigning never ends. It's not enough to pass new legislation; you have to talk about your accomplishments, and do it honestly, authentically and incessantly.

3. A generational shift

Say goodbye to white, male, octogenarian legislators. It's been brewing for a while, but voters have finally come to the conclusion that they are out of touch and incompetent. The 119th Congress stands as one of the oldest in US history, with an overall average age of nearly 60, significantly higher than the median age of the general US population. It's now gone.

Welcome the fresh-faced class of 2026. James Talarico is 37 years old. Abdul El-Sayed is 42. As a whole, the incoming group is more diverse in terms of gender, sexual orientation, ethnicity, religion, and professional background than ever before. There are loggers and farmers, doctors, social workers, veterans and business people, and even a few lawyers and career politicians. It is the closest Congress has ever come to reflecting an accurate portrait of America. And that trend will continue as America continues to diversify, which it will, regardless of efforts to stop it. 

4. The political division is no longer horizontal (right vs. left), it's vertical (top vs. bottom)

It appears that all the Republican talk about the danger of radical 'Marxist and Communist' Democrats taking over the US fell on deaf ears with the electorate. It was something that had me worried, especially when Michigan Democrats chose progressive Abdul El-Sayed in the primaries over the establishment's preferred moderate candidate, Haley Stevens. But the strategy of painting DSA (Democratic Socialists of America) candidates in Cold War-era, 1950s Red Scare terms failed miserably.

The dynamic behind this sweeping election result was top versus bottom, not right versus left. It was the would-be monarch in his gilded palace and coterie of billionaires against regular people. Don't underestimate the impact of the millions across the country who turned out for the many No Kings rallies as an organizing principle. And in the South, African Americans turned out in record midterm numbers, motivated by attempts to gerrymander them out of political relevance.

5. Hating is exhausting, loving is rejuvenating

I won't say that the politics of hatred are over. Politicians will always find ways to fearmonger and stoke divisions because it's such an effective tactic. But hatred only takes you so far, and only for so long.

Eventually, people tire of being angry. They tire of the constant confrontation, the manufactured enemies, and the sense that every political disagreement is an existential battle. They begin to see through it and want something more from their politics. They want optimism, competence, hope, and a sense that government can actually make their lives better.

The MAGA movement tried to articulate an idea of American 'greatness' rooted in nostalgia and traditionalism. But it failed to appeal broadly because its vision was grounded more in negativity than possibility: rejecting diversity, expelling immigrants, and turning back the clock rather than imagining a better future.

James Talarico prominently featured a podium bearing the words "LOVE THY NEIGHBOR" during his victory speech.

Perhaps we're beginning to see a growing appetite for politics that offers not just someone to blame, but something to believe in. Not just a common enemy, but a common purpose. 

Experience

We live so much,

And experience so little. 

- Alain de Botton 

Trump is finally done

The trump era is officially over. He's the big loser. But the Democrats were not the big winners. Trump was the big loser.

The big winner is American democracy, once again proving its resilience.

Yes, trump has two more years in office. But the rebuke in these midterm elections is total. He was defeated in urban America. He was defeated in suburban America and, amazingly, he was defeated in rural America. He was defeated in white America, Black America, and Hispanic America. He was defeated by the old and by the young. By the educated and by the uneducated.

I'm not saying the Republicans lost all those demographics, but they lost ground significantly in all of them.

The Republicans lost everywhere, and trump's handpicked candidates lost worst of all. They lost in places that were unthinkable just a few months ago, including statewide in Texas, Kansas, South Carolina and Iowa. The Mississippi Senate race is still too close to call.

Mississippi.

The last time Kansas sent a Democrat to the Senate, FDR was president (1932).

And the margins weren't very small.

The senator-elect from Kansas (Adam Hamilton) is a pastor, and the senator-elect from Texas (James Talarico) is a former seminarian. They won by occupying the moral high ground. They campaigned by quoting "love thy neighbour" scripture in the American heartland. It's why I say this result is a rejection of the trumpian politics of indecency and cruelty.

Yes, trump lost primarily because he made several terrible decisions that increased the cost of living for average Americans, including healthcare premiums, tariffs on everyday goods, and especially gas and diesel prices.

It hurt Americans where they felt it most: in their pockets.

But gas prices were also symbolic of trump's dismissive attitude toward regular Americans. They were paying more at the pumps and grocery stores every day while he talked on TV about his gold-leafed White House renovation, his ballroom, his reflecting pool and his arch.

Americans saw trump flying around in his fancy new airplane with his coterie of billionaire supporters while they struggled to fill their gas tanks and pay their rent.

It finally dawned on Americans that trump never cared about them or their needs. He only cared about aggrandizing himself and enriching his family and cronies. Gas prices became synonymous with Washington corruption.

They finally said enough is enough and sent a message to Washington that all the money in the world could not buy their votes.

Trumpism has failed. It's been dumped. The MAGA cult of personality is finished.

But the shift to an anti-establishment posture that trumpian politics represents surely isn't over. In fact, it was the driving force behind this election. The Democrats finally took that mantle, pointing to trump and his corrupt billionaire buddies as the Washington establishment that needed to be dislodged. In Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff's memorable phrase "The Epstein Class."  

What we learned last night is that Americans are not stupid, they understand, and that American democracy still works, despite all of trump's efforts to derail it.

His game of deception and distraction with culture war issues didn't work. Women won big. African Americans won big. That's part of why I say this result is a rebuke of trumpism as a whole. It's also a rejection of his racism and misogyny.

It was only a matter of time before trump would bleed and bankrupt the Republican Party, as he did with his businesses and casinos. Now the question is how, and if, they will rebuild.

Congressional Republicans have every reason to work with Democrats and against trump for the next two years. The emperor has no clothes. Most of his political capital has been spent. He can't do very much to help Republicans get re-elected in 2028, so they have every motivation to work across the aisle and accomplish something to save themselves.

This result feels like a generational tectonic political shift, and it might be, if the Democrats don't screw it up.

They can squander the golden opportunity they've been given in any number of ways. They can learn the wrong lessons. They can take it for granted. They can succumb to factionalism and infighting between progressives (Abdul El-Sayed, the Senator-elect from Michigan) and moderates (Hamilton and Talarico). 

They need to continue to focus on the concerns that matter most to average Americans. And they need to find a language that communicates these concerns effectively. They have to restore trust in the system by communicating truthfully, authentically, and with decency and heart, like Adam Hamilton and James Talarico did.

There are still plenty of tricks trump and the Republicans have up their sleeve. Number one on my list is that Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas retire from the Supreme Court in the next few weeks and he rams through new appointees before the Democrats can take control of the Senate. It would be the ultimate cynical political move, which is why I'd put my money on it happening.

For now I'll enjoy the moment. The wicked witch is dead. We are in Kansas after all.

What I'd Give Up

CLICK HERE TO HEAR THE SONG

CLICK HERE TO HEAR SONG (VERSION 2)

What I'd give up to be with you,

I'd give up my looks, my money, my youth,

I'd give up my God, I'd give up my faith,

I'd give up whatever, you chose to take.

I'm an old man encircled by years,

Count all my blessings and discard my fears,

Try to remember, not to live in the past,

Not hold on to something I know that won't last.

I try to look busy when really I'm not,

The religion I compose between whiskey shots,

The tide of the laughter that leaves with the moon,

I bid 'Farewell my friend, see you again soon'.

Time is my teacher and love is my rule,

Sometimes it's hard, and sometimes it's cruel,

But one thing's for sure the hours slip away,

And the dishes in the sink can wait another day.

Therapy Notes

Childhood wasn't any crappier than most. Probably a lot better. No abuse - at least not the kind that leaves physical scars. 

Had money. Family was upper-middle class affluent. Unreligious. Traditional family roles. Father was a businessman. Mother was a homemaker. Eleven year age difference.  

Father grew up working class in the Depression. Mother was well-off.

Mother read self-help books, wrote in a journal, did her job but became increasingly dissatisfied and unhappy. 

Mother had lots of hobbies; rode horses, took a correspondence course to become a veterinary medical technician, photography. Only amounted to temporary distractions. 

Mother decided she wanted out of marriage when kids were in high-school. Told the kids that Father had stayed the same, but she'd changed. 

Mother also said "I'm done being a martyr." 

Was 'the baby' of the family and Mother was protective. After parents split stayed with Mother. 

Father was the baby of his family too. Also had a protective mother. Lived at home until he was 30 years old.

Lived with Mother as she was dating. Kicked him out at 25. 

Never had much in common with Father. Father didn't offer financial help or guidance. 

Never asked Father for anything because strings were attached. Any hand-out was packaged in  expectation and disappointment. 

Father would say, "When I die all my money will be yours anyway," like it was a warning. 

Told Father, "I don't want your money," which was only partially true. 

Both parents eventually died after brief illnesses. 

Says it was quick, "As if they'd decided they weren't worthy of being cared for by others."

Says he finally felt liberated. 

Got some inheritance, like Father promised. Made life a bit easier. 

Says he could finally appreciate parents for giving what they could without feeling guilty for receiving it. 

Says not having expectations is why he doesn't feel lonely. Accepts people for who they are. Observes that if you expect the people around you to be who you want them to be, then you will be lonely, because only you matter. 

Doesn't blame parents.

Wants to know why he’s never been in love.

The Dream Is Dead

The Dream Is Dead."

This was how someone described Israel to me in the aftermath of the recent Israeli election. When I heard it, a chill ran down my spine.

Out of respect for the source, I won't say who made the remark. But I will say that it came from an esteemed and respected Jerusalemite who served for decades as an Israeli dignitary and held very senior positions in government.

I knew exactly what he meant.

The dream he was referring to was the creation of an enlightened, European-style democracy for the Jewish people in the Middle East. It was the dream of the modern Zionist movement, founded by Theodor Herzl, and articulated in the Israeli Declaration of Independence.

By "dead," he meant that this is no longer the Israel we have, or are likely to have in the future. The Israel we have is increasingly becoming a Middle Eastern theological ethno-state, one that is closer in character to other countries in the region, such as Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, than to Britain and France.

In other words, the Occidental (Western, Ashkenazi) vision has lost ground to a more Mizrahi (Eastern, Sephardi) conception of a Jewish homeland.

The comment was deeply personal and emotional for the speaker. As mentioned, it came from someone who had devoted decades of his life to a particular vision of the country, one that he no longer recognizes. Incidentally, he has been retired from public service for many years.

The genius of democracy—when it functions reasonably well, not necessarily perfectly—is that its results provide a reasonably accurate portrait of where a society stands at a particular moment in time.

What are we to glean from the portrait of Israel sketched by the recent election?

The election results:

• Likud bloc (right-wing, religious, pro-Netanyahu) – 53 seats

• Opposition bloc (centrist and left-wing, secular, anti-Netanyahu) – 48 seats

• Arab parties – 19 seats

A few basic observations (admittedly, with some generalizations):

• The Netanyahu-led right-wing coalition lost its parliamentary majority.

• The parties opposed to Netanyahu collectively hold a majority of seats, although they are divided over whether and how to cooperate with the Arab parties.

• The Arab parties made the most significant gains.

A lot of people don't like the portrait they see, on both the right and the left.

On the centre-left, there is disappointment that Netanyahu's coalition still holds the largest bloc of seats. The election did not decisively end his political career, and full accountability for October 7 remains an open question.

On the right, there is unhappiness over the political gains made by Arab parties, which many on that side of the political spectrum regard as incompatible with their vision of a Jewish state and their security concerns.

Predictably, Netanyahu and his party are already alleging that the election was corrupted by fraud and outside interference.

But what I see, and I think what the speaker of the "Dream Is Dead" comment sees, is a country divided between its original Western aspirations and its Middle Eastern political reality. That the very things that distinguish a liberal democracy may be viewed by an increasingly large segment of the population as luxuries that cannot be afforded.

This shift towards a more Mizrahi political orientation is not simply the result of external factors. It is also a consequence of the changing character of Israeli society, following the social and political integration of Jewish immigrants from North Africa and the Middle East, including Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Libya and Yemen. Jews of Mizrahi and Sephardi backgrounds constitute a very substantial proportion of Israel's Jewish population, as much as 45%.

Until at least the mid-1970s, Mizrahi Jews were widely treated as second-class citizens by the predominantly Ashkenazi establishment. They enjoyed full legal voting rights and citizenship, but faced systemic discrimination, cultural marginalization and significant economic disadvantages.

The socioeconomic disparities created during those early decades have left a lasting legacy. They remain evident in aspects of educational attainment, economic opportunity and representation in some of the country's most influential institutions, including academia, the judiciary and the upper echelons of government.

Meanwhile, Mizrahi Jews, who are orthodox and more traditional than Ashkenazi Jews, have learned how to flex their political muscle.

In a way, what we are seeing today in Israeli politics is a case of chickens coming home to roost.

Head Fake

I don't have any social media accounts (Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, etc.), but I am a regular on YouTube. The reason is twofold. First, I feel I can control what I choose to watch. It's more like switching television channels than scrolling through an endless feed of slop. Second, the content is generally longer and more thoughtful.

I subscribe to only a handful of YouTube channels, so the notifications are kept to a minimum. They feed my hobby interests, like music, and are therefore more about deepening my knowledge of particular subjects than simply filling time.

One of the channels I subscribe to, which I believe I've mentioned in previous posts, belongs to a fellow who calls himself The Functional Melancholic. I'd characterize his work as commentary on contemporary life, delivered with dry wit and dark humour. He posts about once a week, speaking in a slow, halting fashion about philosophy, psychology, sociology and spirituality (mostly Eastern) for 30–45 minutes. It's heady stuff, and he usually refers to source books and provides a reading list.

In addition to being thoughtful and funny, I find his videos comforting, in a commiserating sort of way.

He talks about things we've all confronted. This week, he posted a video called The Myth of Normal, about the difficulties and rewards of living a nonconformist life. But then, in the same week, another video appeared, this one on the subject of Population Decline and the Quiet Rise of Natalism.

That's unusual, I thought. Two videos in one week. I clicked on it. Yes, it's him. Except I immediately noticed that it was a different channel. Instead of The Functional Melancholic, it was called The Lucid Outsider. Ha! Playing on the title of his other channel, I thought.

I watched for a few minutes. Everything seemed normal. I figured he'd started a second channel, perhaps one with a more political orientation. I'd seen other YouTubers do that before.

But after a few minutes, something seemed ever so slightly off. He looked and sounded exactly the same. Same style, same delivery, even the same dry wit, although not quite as biting or funny. Not one of his better posts. And there were brief moments when the image seemed unnatural, but only for a split second.

Then I started reading the comments underneath, and there it was: A comment from The Functional Melancholic himself, saying it was fake, a scam, and not his. Other comments confirmed that it was an AI impersonation.

I felt almost embarrassed that I'd fallen for it.

This was the second video I'd watched that week exposing fakery on the internet. The other was about a musician who mimes his supposedly virtuoso bass guitar solos onstage, playing along to pre-recorded material. He'd tricked some very famous musicians and music teachers with his apparent skill. That video attracted almost a million views and more than 6,000 comments in 48 hours. 

Remember, we're talking about a video about a bass player.

Another YouTuber I watch with some regularity is Wings of Pegasus. He's made an entire career out of expertly analysing supposedly 'live' singing performances, whether in concert or on video, to determine if they've been faked through miming, autotuning or artificial pitch correction. The answer is that fakery has become pervasive. The music industry has bought in almost completely, ultimately, I believe, to its own detriment.

I've been reading a lot lately about people becoming disillusioned with the internet because of AI. The more fake content there is, the less people trust what they encounter, whether it's news, art or entertainment. The technological ecosystem that relies on audience attention as its bread and butter is at risk of losing that attention.

Or are we simply entering an arms race, with technologies designed to detect fakery competing against technologies designed to create it?

Frankly, that's not a world I'm interested in participating in.

There's a special irony in The Functional Melancholic's channel being faked. His content often explores the challenges of finding and maintaining personal authenticity in an increasingly inauthentic and alienating world. Lately, he's been posting from the middle of the forest while out on mountain hikes to underscore his point.

The contradiction is unavoidable.

If the medium is the message, as Marshall McLuhan famously put it, one wonders whether the only logical and authentic response is to turn the damn phone off.