The Political Cage Match To Come

If you believe in democracy, free and fair election results send a message you need to hear.

The problem with recent US elections has been that they've been so close to 50/50. Close elections are a Rorschach test in which everyone can credibly see whatever meaning they choose to see.

The beauty of these midterms is that they weren't close. In fact, they were almost historically lopsided, even by midterm standards. Trump will still try to question the results, because he fundamentally doesn't believe in democracy, and the idea of losing is cognitive dissonance to a malignant narcissist.

But for the rest of us, and for trump's party, whatever other conclusions might be drawn from the results, the overarching message is unmistakable: Voters are unhappy. Very unhappy.

Initially, trump couldn't avoid confronting such a clear verdict. That's why, when asked the next day, he said he would work with the Democrats.

It took all of 24 hours for reality to set in. The Democrats taking power meant they would be coming after him and his family's fortune through investigations.

Then trump's instincts for self-preservation kicked in, and he became Mr. Veto. He also made his next big move, firing political pragmatist Susie Wiles as his chief of staff and replacing her with political pit bull Stephen Miller. Now he's even talking about bringing his friend Dana White, the president of the UFC, into the White House as press secretary.

Trump is firmly back in his familiar fight-and-play-the-victim mode.

Dana White, a mixed martial arts entrepreneir as White House Press Secretary, could not be more appropriate if it happened. Because I can confidently predict one thing: The next several months it's going to be a bloody, three-round cage match for trump and the Republicans. 

Round One: The rats flee the sinking ship.

This is already happening. As trump's political fortunes decline, those who once found it advantageous to stand by him will begin looking for the exits. Political loyalty evaporates when personal survival takes precedence.

Round Two: Republicans in Congress distance themselves from trump.

Just as trump is doubling down on his support for Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, talk in Congress is turning toward the possibility of his impeachment on a bipartisan basis.

Trump's public support for Hegseth may actually make impeachment more likely, not less. A high-profile rebuke of the administration would serve the growing need among congressional Republicans to demonstrate that they are no longer prepared to follow trump's lead unquestioningly.

Round Three: The Republican civil war.

As trump's unpopularity creates a political vacuum, infighting within the Republican Party will intensify. The contenders for leadership will increasingly vie for attention and begin positioning themselves for what comes next.

JD Vance will be seen less and less alongside trump, while making increasingly pointed statements to distance himself from the president. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will likely resign after Christmas to focus on his campaign. We'll be seeing a lot more of Ron DeSantis (unfortunately). Others will begin making their ambitions known.

In my opinion, it would be foolish for the Democrats to impeach trump. He's their greatest political asset. Impeachment would be an unnecessary distraction, giving trump another opportunity to play the victim, as he has so effectively done in the past. Why rescue him from the political consequences of his own actions?

Trump's smartest move would be to negotiate an exit from politics, perhaps through a plea arrangement that provides legal immunity for him and his family. It would give him a way out while allowing the country to move on.

But that's the smart move, which is precisely why I'm sure trump won't make it. He'd rather go down fighting and take his party down with him.

It Was Not Enough

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Sought shelter when we fought,

Sought shelter in my thoughts.

Sought shelter at the bar,

Sought shelter in my car.

Sought shelter with a gun,

Sought shelter on the run.

Shought shelter spewing hate,

Sought shelter from my fate.

Went out into the rain,

To wash away my pain.

The wind upon my face, 

To me it felt like grace. 

Sought shelter in my phone,

Far away from home.

Sought shelter in a song, 

When everything went wrong.

Sought shelter in your touch,

Shelter in God above.

Sought shelter in your love,

But it was not enough.

Went out into the rain,

To wash away my pain.

The wind upon my face, 

To me it felt like grace. 

Sought shelter in your touch,

Shelter in God above.

Sought shelter in your love,

But it was not enough.

Unafraid

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I've never cared for clothes

or cars, not one for hype, 

nor the fruit I consume as long as 

the belly's full, raw or ripe.

I wear the sky and stars,

and the ride that I hitch 

is the magnificent turning world

and in it, my modest niche. 

In the quiet of my room my spirit 

settles like dust on a bookshelf:

Philosophy, science, poetry,

bound narratives of the Self,

volumes lined up like soldiers,  

untested recruits on parade, 

with death still merely imagined, 

fortified and unafraid. 

The Day After

What happened on November 3rd was a shift of political tectonic plates in the US. I don't use the term lightly.

Because when something so dramatic occurs, like an earthquake, we see the immediate results right away, but struggle to understand exactly how it happened and what it means.

As complex as geology is, earthquakes don't hold a candle (to mix my metaphors) to politics.

Here are a few of my big-picture takeaways in the immediate aftermath.

1. People are growing less and less patient in an era of declining trust

In the entire 20th century, there were only four presidents who served a single four-year term before losing re-election. In the first quarter of the 21st century, there have been three (including trump’s two non-consecutive terms). Consecutive terms have been the norm until recently. No more. It's because we live in an era of declining trust.

People want change more often and results faster. Notwithstanding the hold trump's cult of personality has over his base, the electorate is generally becoming less partisan, not more. It's what made his cult of personality possible in the first place. Trump is really neither a Republican nor a Democrat. The number of voters identifying as independents is growing. That means the electorate will continue to become more fickle, and political swings are likely to continue.

Politicians will have to figure out how to deal effectively with this trend. And the answer isn't to move faster on the most extreme aspects of their agendas while they have the political capital to do so, appeasing the most extreme elements of their coalitions. On the contrary, it's to tack toward small victories that build confidence in their party, and by extension in government as a whole. I dearly hope that the Democrats in the new Congress understand this.

2. Messaging is as important as policy in the era of short attentions spans

Because the messaging environment is so overwhelming and confusing, messages have to be kept as simple and coherent as possible. The Democrats won because they were able to keep the narrative straightforward and triangulate several issues at once: pocketbook issues, the war in Iran, and corruption. Democrats connected the dots clearly and hammered away at this unified, three-pronged narrative, which corresponded to the lived reality of voters.

When in government, messaging has to be constant and consistent, something else that trump understood, both to his advantage and to his detriment. This was Biden's greatest failing during his term. He was a terrible communicator. Democrats need to learn the lesson that, in the new media environment, the campaigning never ends. It's not enough to pass new legislation; you have to talk about your accomplishments, and do it honestly, authentically and incessantly.

3. A generational shift

Say goodbye to white, male, octogenarian legislators. It's been brewing for a while, but voters have finally come to the conclusion that they are out of touch and incompetent. The 119th Congress stands as one of the oldest in US history, with an overall average age of nearly 60, significantly higher than the median age of the general US population. It's now gone.

Welcome the fresh-faced class of 2026. James Talarico is 37 years old. Abdul El-Sayed is 42. As a whole, the incoming group is more diverse in terms of gender, sexual orientation, ethnicity, religion, and professional background than ever before. There are loggers and farmers, doctors, social workers, veterans and business people, and even a few lawyers and career politicians. It is the closest Congress has ever come to reflecting an accurate portrait of America. And that trend will continue as America continues to diversify, which it will, regardless of efforts to stop it. 

4. The political division is no longer horizontal (right vs. left), it's vertical (top vs. bottom)

It appears that all the Republican talk about the danger of radical 'Marxist and Communist' Democrats taking over the US fell on deaf ears with the electorate. It was something that had me worried, especially when Michigan Democrats chose progressive Abdul El-Sayed in the primaries over the establishment's preferred moderate candidate, Haley Stevens. But the strategy of painting DSA (Democratic Socialists of America) candidates in Cold War-era, 1950s Red Scare terms failed miserably.

The dynamic behind this sweeping election result was top versus bottom, not right versus left. It was the would-be monarch in his gilded palace and coterie of billionaires against regular people. Don't underestimate the impact of the millions across the country who turned out for the many No Kings rallies as an organizing principle. And in the South, African Americans turned out in record midterm numbers, motivated by attempts to gerrymander them out of political relevance.

5. Hating is exhausting, loving is rejuvenating

I won't say that the politics of hatred are over. Politicians will always find ways to fearmonger and stoke divisions because it's such an effective tactic. But hatred only takes you so far, and only for so long.

Eventually, people tire of being angry. They tire of the constant confrontation, the manufactured enemies, and the sense that every political disagreement is an existential battle. They begin to see through it and want something more from their politics. They want optimism, competence, hope, and a sense that government can actually make their lives better.

The MAGA movement tried to articulate an idea of American 'greatness' rooted in nostalgia and traditionalism. But it failed to appeal broadly because its vision was grounded more in negativity than possibility: rejecting diversity, expelling immigrants, and turning back the clock rather than imagining a better future.

James Talarico prominently featured a podium bearing the words "LOVE THY NEIGHBOR" during his victory speech.

Perhaps we're beginning to see a growing appetite for politics that offers not just someone to blame, but something to believe in. Not just a common enemy, but a common purpose. 

Experience

We live so much,

And experience so little. 

- Alain de Botton 

Trump is finally done

The trump era is officially over. He's the big loser. But the Democrats were not the big winners. Trump was the big loser.

The big winner is American democracy, once again proving its resilience.

Yes, trump has two more years in office. But the rebuke in these midterm elections is total. He was defeated in urban America. He was defeated in suburban America and, amazingly, he was defeated in rural America. He was defeated in white America, Black America, and Hispanic America. He was defeated by the old and by the young. By the educated and by the uneducated.

I'm not saying the Republicans lost all those demographics, but they lost ground significantly in all of them.

The Republicans lost everywhere, and trump's handpicked candidates lost worst of all. They lost in places that were unthinkable just a few months ago, including statewide in Texas, Kansas, South Carolina and Iowa. The Mississippi Senate race is still too close to call.

Mississippi.

The last time Kansas sent a Democrat to the Senate, FDR was president (1932).

And the margins weren't very small.

The senator-elect from Kansas (Adam Hamilton) is a pastor, and the senator-elect from Texas (James Talarico) is a former seminarian. They won by occupying the moral high ground. They campaigned by quoting "love thy neighbour" scripture in the American heartland. It's why I say this result is a rejection of the trumpian politics of indecency and cruelty.

Yes, trump lost primarily because he made several terrible decisions that increased the cost of living for average Americans, including healthcare premiums, tariffs on everyday goods, and especially gas and diesel prices.

It hurt Americans where they felt it most: in their pockets.

But gas prices were also symbolic of trump's dismissive attitude toward regular Americans. They were paying more at the pumps and grocery stores every day while he talked on TV about his gold-leafed White House renovation, his ballroom, his reflecting pool and his arch.

Americans saw trump flying around in his fancy new airplane with his coterie of billionaire supporters while they struggled to fill their gas tanks and pay their rent.

It finally dawned on Americans that trump never cared about them or their needs. He only cared about aggrandizing himself and enriching his family and cronies. Gas prices became synonymous with Washington corruption.

They finally said enough is enough and sent a message to Washington that all the money in the world could not buy their votes.

Trumpism has failed. It's been dumped. The MAGA cult of personality is finished.

But the shift to an anti-establishment posture that trumpian politics represents surely isn't over. In fact, it was the driving force behind this election. The Democrats finally took that mantle, pointing to trump and his corrupt billionaire buddies as the Washington establishment that needed to be dislodged. In Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff's memorable phrase "The Epstein Class."  

What we learned last night is that Americans are not stupid, they understand, and that American democracy still works, despite all of trump's efforts to derail it.

His game of deception and distraction with culture war issues didn't work. Women won big. African Americans won big. That's part of why I say this result is a rebuke of trumpism as a whole. It's also a rejection of his racism and misogyny.

It was only a matter of time before trump would bleed and bankrupt the Republican Party, as he did with his businesses and casinos. Now the question is how, and if, they will rebuild.

Congressional Republicans have every reason to work with Democrats and against trump for the next two years. The emperor has no clothes. Most of his political capital has been spent. He can't do very much to help Republicans get re-elected in 2028, so they have every motivation to work across the aisle and accomplish something to save themselves.

This result feels like a generational tectonic political shift, and it might be, if the Democrats don't screw it up.

They can squander the golden opportunity they've been given in any number of ways. They can learn the wrong lessons. They can take it for granted. They can succumb to factionalism and infighting between progressives (Abdul El-Sayed, the Senator-elect from Michigan) and moderates (Hamilton and Talarico). 

They need to continue to focus on the concerns that matter most to average Americans. And they need to find a language that communicates these concerns effectively. They have to restore trust in the system by communicating truthfully, authentically, and with decency and heart, like Adam Hamilton and James Talarico did.

There are still plenty of tricks trump and the Republicans have up their sleeve. Number one on my list is that Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas retire from the Supreme Court in the next few weeks and he rams through new appointees before the Democrats can take control of the Senate. It would be the ultimate cynical political move, which is why I'd put my money on it happening.

For now I'll enjoy the moment. The wicked witch is dead. We are in Kansas after all.

What I'd Give Up

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What I'd give up to be with you,

I'd give up my looks, my money, my youth,

I'd give up my God, I'd give up my faith,

I'd give up whatever, you chose to take.

I'm an old man encircled by years,

Count all my blessings and discard my fears,

Try to remember, not to live in the past,

Not hold on to something I know that won't last.

I try to look busy when really I'm not,

The religion I compose between whiskey shots,

The tide of the laughter that leaves with the moon,

I bid 'Farewell my friend, see you again soon'.

Time is my teacher and love is my rule,

Sometimes it's hard, and sometimes it's cruel,

But one thing's for sure the hours slip away,

And the dishes in the sink can wait another day.