Your neighbor has been stockpiling weapons in their house. This neighbor openly hates you—they call you their sworn enemy and have threatened your family for years. They say they want you dead. They call you evil and declare their commitment to your annihilation.
Meanwhile, you go about your life. You raise your family. You go to work. You try to live in peace. But every so often, they vandalize your property. They hire others to deface your home, disrupt your life, and make your existence miserable. You install alarms, cameras, and hire private security. You do everything you can to protect yourself. But the threats and harassment never stop—and the weapons keep piling up next door. At what point are you justified in striking back?
That’s been Israel’s situation with Iran for decades. After years of threats, attacks, and proxy wars, Israel is striking back. This is not the beginning of a conflict. It’s an escalation of a long, grinding, existential war that Israel has been forced to wage for years.
Iran’s nuclear ambitions, its open hostility, and its sponsorship of groups like Hezbollah are not abstractions for Israel—they are lived realities. The October 7th massacre—the single greatest security failure in Israel’s history—was a turning point. In the neighbor analogy, imagine one of your enemy’s henchmen broke into your house, murdered two of your children, and kidnapped another. Would that not cross a red line? Would you still feel safe doing nothing while your neighbor continued stockpiling weapons and plotting your demise?
But Israel's response wasn’t just reactive. It was also strategic. The crippling of Hezbollah, Iran’s most advanced frontline proxy, was a major military success. Israel is now saying that its goal is to eliminate the nuclear threat. In the short term, this might be achievable through airstrikes. But in the medium to long term, it can’t do it alone. It needs American assistance—specifically, the B-2 bombers and bunker-busting munitions that only the U.S. can provide. Will that help come? Probably not.
Trump, despite his bluster, is unlikely to commit U.S. forces to another Middle East war. At most, he will offer intelligence and weaponry. His MAGA base has no appetite for a new conflict. His foreign policy is driven by strategic incoherence because all he cares about is personal ambition—namely, his obsession with winning the Nobel Peace Prize. He fantasized about brokering deals to end the Russia-Ukraine war or the Gaza conflict in 24 hours of taking office. Predictably, those plans didn't materialize. Now that Israel and Iran are fighting it out, trump sees it as another shot at the Nobel. As if Iran would now return to the negotiating table with the U.S. It's craven and unserious.
In the meantime, Israel is left to act alone.
Even if Israel succeeds in setting back Iran’s nuclear program a decade, that alone won’t guarantee long-term security. The only real solution, ultimately, is regime change in Iran. But that, as history has shown again and again, is a perilous and unpredictable road. Airstrikes won’t spark democracy. Killing leaders doesn’t guarantee transformation. And even if the regime collapses, what replaces it? A freer Iran—or something worse? No one knows. That’s the grim uncertainty Israel faces.
But one thing is clear: the United States, once the unshakable anchor of global order, can no longer be counted on to lead. Israel has offered it a golden opportunity to reassert moral leadership, strength and principle. But trump, and much of the political establishment, are unlikely to take advantage of it. And the worst outcome - which America's unwillingness to act could guarantee - is that Iran survives the war relatively intact and rushes to get nuclear weapons, probably with Russia's assistance.
Israel must press forward, alone if necessary. It has no choice. No nation can afford to live next door to someone who openly seeks its destruction—and does nothing.
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