'Feeling' Sick

How do you know you're sick?

1. You don't feel well.

2. You take your temperature.

Oddly, it works much the same way with economic and political sickness, especially in America.

If the polls are right, it appears trump and his party could be hammered in the coming midterm elections. Primarily for two reasons: people aren't feeling economically well, and every day they can see their economic temperature being taken on those giant signs beside the road at Mobil and Shell gas stations.

During Bill Clinton's successful first presidential run, his political strategist James Carville famously came up with the motto "It's the economy, stupid" to simplify the campaign's central message. America was going through a recession, and incumbent George H. W. Bush was seen as being out of touch with the financial difficulties of ordinary Americans.

Ever since, the economy has remained a powerful force in American elections. There's a strong relationship between economic conditions, including inflation and gas prices, and the political fortunes of the party in power.

Another major issue in recent decades has been immigration, often framed as an economic issue: immigrants take jobs, drive down wages and put pressure on public services.

Here in Canada, we see the same economic temperature signs, and we know things aren't great. In some important respects, they're worse than in the States. Canada's unemployment rate is higher, for example, and its economic growth has been weaker.

But we don't seem to feel quite as sick, and it's showing in the polls. Our current prime minister, Mark Carney, is the most popular politician in the country since Pierre Trudeau in the 1970s.

What's that all about? He doesn't have Trudeau's charm, wit, charisma or political savvy.

What he does have is intelligence, expertise and competence. We know we're sick, and Carney seems to be the doctor we want and trust to provide the treatment we need.

I think there's something else at play, too. Sickness is as much a state of mind as it is a physical ailment. Ask any physician and they'll tell you that a patient's outlook can influence how they cope with illness and treatment, even if a positive attitude alone can't determine the outcome.

Canadians generally seem willing to endure the economic threats we face because we believe we have something much more important at stake to defend: our sovereignty, our identity, our values and our self-respect.

Gas prices be damned.

I'm not arguing that the economy doesn't play an important role in our politics. Of course it does. Maybe even an outsized role, à la Carville.

But for Canadians, other factors are at play, and right now, they take precedence.

I'm as annoyed as the next guy every time I pass a Shell or Esso station. But on some level, those signs also remind me that there's much more at stake in this political moment.

For years, many Americans have been willing to accept from their politicians constant lies and gaslighting, massive corruption, blatant racism, cruelty and even the stripping away of fundamental constitutional rights. 

If, in the midterms, they're finally drawing a line in the sand over gas prices, I'll take it.

Forgive me for not thinking it means a fundamental change in character or political dynamic.