Is this what happens when the fever is breaking?
That was my first thought after hearing that there was another attempt on trump. I was not surprised to hear that the suspect of this attempt had voted Republican. When they don't like something, Democrats tend to carry protest signs, Republicans tend to carry guns.
Trump's singular achievement as a politician is that he activated and initiated the lunatic fringe into mainstream American politics. The guys (they are mostly white guys) who existed on the margins of society, the portion of the electorate who were rural, depoliticized and preferred to hate the government from their well-stocked and well-armed Doomsday bunkers, had a champion in the White House for a time. They became Trump's personal power base and the most ardent Republicans, elbowing out the centrist establishment normies. After his defeat in 2020, rather than step down as most losing candidates do, trump did the opposite, he consolidated his base of support and his takeover of the Party was complete. The only problem is, now that you are the Party, you own whatever happens to it. What happens when the promises you've been making all these years start being replaced by excuse after excuse? What happens when your supporters get tired of the familiar, old, boring, racist tune you've been singing, and you don't know any other lyrics to sing? And worse, what happens when you keep losing, and they stop believing your claim that every loss is actually a win?
First, they stop coming to your shows. Then they stop buying your merch. Finally, the most ardent of your supporters want you out of the picture for good. Trump is not only running to stay out of jail, he's literally running to stay alive.
So what happens after trump loses (again)? Trump will say the election was rigged (again), as he is already doing. But this time no one will listen. He is not the president so this time he can not leverage that position for the purposes of disruption. There might be some protests, but there won't be riots in the streets. Chances are it will be like the protests he called for when he was in court in New York, meh. The only civil war we are likely to see will be in the Republican Party. Trump won't let go of the Party, he can't. It's his main family business. He's been trying to diversify the business for a while (bibles, sneakers, NFTs), mainly with the media division, and now a cryptocurrency (?), which suggests a pivot away from politics to some degree. The politics has always only ever been about the money. But he's never gone gently into that good night, ever, and he will fight to keep control of the Party because it's a formidable marketing infrastructure, and he has money problems on the horizon too. Unfortunately for him, his legal problems will eventually catch up with him, both financially and in terms of his liberty. Trump still has a few years of court ahead of him with appeals etc. before he is remanded into custody. But his legal problems will ultimately end his political career once and for all, if a heart attack or one of his followers doesn't end it permanently first.
Since narrowly being elected to the Senate, JD Vance has seen himself as trump's heir apparent. That's what being trump's running mate has always been about for him. Trying to figure out how to take hold of the trump base with trump's blessing has been his objective. I can't see how that happens, even if trump is in jail. At best, he will become trump's mini-me, and trump will make sure everyone thinks that he is calling all the shots, no matter what. But the normie faction of the Republican Party is still around. They were the Nikki Haley voters in the primary. Plenty of them will either vote for Harris (to vote against trump, like Adam Kinsinger and Lynne Cheney) or just stay home this election. They will reemerge after the election, and my guess is that they will get behind Nikki. She will come out of this political cycle well positioned to battle for leadership. Between her and trump/Vance, my money would be on her. But it will be a bloody, ugly fight.
Harris vs. Haley in 2028. Another unprecedented election, but in a good way.
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