World War 3

I've been wondering what World War 3 might look like, and whether we are already here. And if true, that would be a good thing.

Trump talks about it all the time on the stump. Of course, that's just hyperbole designed to scare people so they'll vote for him. Maybe he's actually on to something, just not what he thinks. 

After World War 2, which culminated in the United States dropping two atomic bombs on Japan, the United Nations was established. It had a couple of main objectives, and one of them was not to establish A Universal Declaration of Human Rights, that came later. The two objectives were, first to create a forum of international deliberation in order to avoid the cascade of events that degenerated into World War 2, and could lead to World War 3. The second objective, related to the first, was to make sure nuclear weapons are never used again. It was understood implicitly that WW2 had changed the rules of engagement, and any war could henceforth potentially lead to a catastrophic conflagration that would destroy most, if not all, of humanity. Since World War 2 the UN has largely been successful. Wars have been contained to certain areas and regions. And nuclear weapons have not been used. So far so good. 

For most of the post-WW2 period, the world was bi-polar, organized around two rival ideological spheres of influence centered on the two major nuclear powers, The US and the USSR. That came apart with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989, and for the last 30 years or so the new global order has been shaking out. During the Cold War terrorism and proxy war became a mainstay of international conflict. The nuclear powers engaged in it, as a way of avoiding direct conflict with each other, and minor political actors were only too happy to accept the support of the major powers.    

I began thinking about this because of what we are seeing currently in the Middle-East, as Israel and Iran climb the escalatory ladder of war. Analysts are warning about the situation becoming a regional war, as Israel contemplates its target for retaliation in response to the unprecedented ballistic missile attack by Iran. Seems to me that we are already in a regional war, one that has been waging since at least 2005/2006, when Israel unilaterally evacuated from Gaza (2005) and Hamas took over, and there was a war with Hezbollah in Lebanon (2006). The analysts say that it can get much worse, there are many more rungs to climb up the escalatory ladder. No doubt about that, there are many more bombs to drop and ballistic missiles to launch, from both sides. But in a conflict that is fundamentally ideological, not territorial or existential in nature (and won't be, remember Israel is a nuclear power), this conflict will remain a game of tit-for-tat, two sides punching at each other until they decide they've had enough. 

Israel's main concern in this conflict has been about re-establishing its military reputation and deterrence after the humiliation of October 7th, and not just with regional rivals (and allies) but also with its own citizens. This is the process of escalation in action. It's the reason that the defeat of Hamas in Gaza, even if that means destroying most of Gaza, and the defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon (even if it means destroying large parts of Lebanon) became such a pressing objective for Israel. One can imagine alternative pathways that the conflict could have taken. One that was focused on the return of the hostages instead of the restoration of Israeli deterrence. Imagine that Israel chose not to bomb Gaza to smithereens and instead took a longer more tactical and gradual approach to choking off the supply of arms to Hamas. Imagine that it gave Egypt an ultimatum to respect its peace treaty or it would occupy the Philadelphi corridor. Imagine that it worked for a regional political solution with the US and other Arab allies (Jordan, Saudi Arabia) rather than a military one. It was at least within the realm of possibility. Very little time was afforded any possibility other than taking the military route, for particular reasons.  

It may be that what turned this ongoing regional ideological conflict into a 'World War' is the role played by the UN, which is extremely ironic of course. Such a statement depends on how we define 'war', which in the post-WW2 period was broadened from destructive physical conflict to include "Cold War". The globalization of war gets expressed in our age through the UN, which sometimes acts as fuel to simmering regional conflict and expands it in the global sphere. Through the UN, terrorist proxy groups became legitimate global political actors, under the guise of the Palestinian cause. UN-affiliated agencies, UNRWA in Gaza, and the failed UNIFIL in Lebanon, became a permission structure for the activities of terrorists, or in some cases became directly associated and even active with terrorist groups, by aiding and abetting them. In the broader context, Iran and its radical allies have leveraged the prestige of the UN and its agencies (including, most regrettably, the ICC and the ICJ) to promote an anti-America/anti-Israel agenda and to organize and amplify its messaging. This has spread the wildfire of hatred and anti-Semitism to the streets of western cities and on to university campuses. The Palestinian cause planted the seed of corruption that grew and spread across the planet. Iran and its ideological allies have run with it. They don't actually care about the Palestinian cause, they just use it for cover because it carries such currency in the context of the UN. This is what World War 3 actually looks like, facilitated by the UN. 

The UN is not unredeemable, but it needs major reform to stop being an agent of hatred and destruction. The first step is to recognize that the UN is not simply a disinterested political forum. Its founding and mission is an expression of the values expressed in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, and those are the values of human progress, and that's democracy. There is no peace and security without human rights. The two go hand in hand. So until the UN starts to take concrete steps to promote democratic values and combat the regimes dedicated to opposing those values, it will fall prey to manipulation, and risk becoming complicit by fomenting global conflict. 

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Post-Script on the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

From the National Post:

"When he died, Sinwar was wearing a bullet-proof vest and carrying an UNRWA identity card... The two other, also killed in the building, have been identified. One was a senior official with the Hamas-run Ministry of Defence. The second was a teacher with UNRWA (also carrying his UNRWA identity card.)"