Because when something so dramatic occurs, like an earthquake, we see the immediate results right away, but struggle to understand exactly how it happened and what it means.
As complex as geology is, earthquakes don't hold a candle (to mix my metaphors) to politics.
Here are a few of my big-picture takeaways in the immediate aftermath.
1. People are growing less and less patient in an era of declining trust
In the entire 20th century, there were only four presidents who served a single four-year term before losing re-election. In the first quarter of the 21st century, there have been three (including trump’s two non-consecutive terms). Consecutive terms have been the norm until recently. No more. It's because we live in an era of declining trust.
People want change more often and results faster. Notwithstanding the hold trump's cult of personality has over his base, the electorate is generally becoming less partisan, not more. It's what made his cult of personality possible in the first place. Trump is really neither a Republican nor a Democrat. The number of voters identifying as independents is growing. That means the electorate will continue to become more fickle, and political swings are likely to continue.
Politicians will have to figure out how to deal effectively with this trend. And the answer isn't to move faster on the most extreme aspects of their agendas while they have the political capital to do so, appeasing the most extreme elements of their coalitions. On the contrary, it's to tack toward small victories that build confidence in their party, and by extension in government as a whole. I dearly hope that the Democrats in the new Congress understand this.
2. Messaging is as important as policy in the era of short attentions spans
Because the messaging environment is so overwhelming and confusing, messages have to be kept as simple and coherent as possible. The Democrats won because they were able to keep the narrative straightforward and triangulate several issues at once: pocketbook issues, the war in Iran, and corruption. Democrats connected the dots clearly and hammered away at this unified, three-pronged narrative, which corresponded to the lived reality of voters.
When in government, messaging has to be constant and consistent, something else that trump understood, both to his advantage and to his detriment. This was Biden's greatest failing during his term. He was a terrible communicator. Democrats need to learn the lesson that, in the new media environment, the campaigning never ends. It's not enough to pass new legislation; you have to talk about your accomplishments, and do it honestly, authentically and incessantly.
3. A generational shift
Say goodbye to white, male, octogenarian legislators. It's been brewing for a while, but voters have finally come to the conclusion that they are out of touch and incompetent. The 119th Congress stands as one of the oldest in US history, with an overall average age of nearly 60, significantly higher than the median age of the general US population. It's now gone.
Welcome the fresh-faced class of 2026. James Talarico is 37 years old. Abdul El-Sayed is 42. As a whole, the incoming group is more diverse in terms of gender, sexual orientation, ethnicity, religion, and professional background than ever before. There are loggers and farmers, doctors, social workers, veterans and business people, and even a few lawyers and career politicians. It is the closest Congress has ever come to reflecting an accurate portrait of America. And that trend will continue as America continues to diversify, which it will, regardless of efforts to stop it.
4. The political division is no longer horizontal (right vs. left), it's vertical (top vs. bottom)
It appears that all the Republican talk about the danger of radical 'Marxist and Communist' Democrats taking over the US fell on deaf ears with the electorate. It was something that had me worried, especially when Michigan Democrats chose progressive Abdul El-Sayed in the primaries over the establishment's preferred moderate candidate, Haley Stevens. But the strategy of painting DSA (Democratic Socialists of America) candidates in Cold War-era, 1950s Red Scare terms failed miserably.
The dynamic behind this sweeping election result was top versus bottom, not right versus left. It was the would-be monarch in his gilded palace and coterie of billionaires against regular people. Don't underestimate the impact of the millions across the country who turned out for the many No Kings rallies as an organizing principle. And in the South, African Americans turned out in record midterm numbers, motivated by attempts to gerrymander them out of political relevance.
5. Hating is exhausting, loving is rejuvenating
I won't say that the politics of hatred are over. Politicians will always find ways to fearmonger and stoke divisions because it's such an effective tactic. But hatred only takes you so far, and only for so long.
Eventually, people tire of being angry. They tire of the constant confrontation, the manufactured enemies, and the sense that every political disagreement is an existential battle. They begin to see through it and want something more from their politics. They want optimism, competence, hope, and a sense that government can actually make their lives better.
The MAGA movement tried to articulate an idea of American 'greatness' rooted in nostalgia and traditionalism. But it failed to appeal broadly because its vision was grounded more in negativity than possibility: rejecting diversity, expelling immigrants, and turning back the clock rather than imagining a better future.
James Talarico prominently featured a podium bearing the words "LOVE THY NEIGHBOR" during his victory speech.
Perhaps we're beginning to see a growing appetite for politics that offers not just someone to blame, but something to believe in. Not just a common enemy, but a common purpose.
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